The Wanderer

Evan, they hardly knew ye

2006-12-20T16:08:00.000-05:00

Evan, they hardly knew ye

For Howey Political Report Dec. 19, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Ten days. That's how long Evan Bayh owned the lead role of the non-Hillary centrist in the unfolding drama that is the 2008 Democratic presidential candidate selection process.

The afternoon of Oct. 12 must have been a giddy time for the senator's political staff, the crack professionals who over the past year worked in the wings to elevate Bayh's prominence on the national stage. In a surprise announcement made earlier that day, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner had declared he was leaving the race to spend more time with his teenage daughters. For months, both Bayh and Warner had clamored to occupy almost exactly the same political role - the non-Hillary, a moderate with executive experience and a resume demonstrating the ability to win votes in a red state. Reports indicate Bayh was immediately on the telephone, working to woo Warner supporters.

"We are very pleased in the reception that Senator Bayh is getting from former Warner supporters," Bayh's communications director, Dan Pfeiffer, told HPR at the time. "There is clearly an appetite for someone with a proven record of winning in red states."

But it was not to be. On Oct. 22nd the bright lights focused instead on Barack Obama of Illinois. The Democratic senator known for captivating crowds in Kennedy-esque fashion announced on NBC's "Meet The Press" that he was considering entering the fray. Suddenly Evan Bayh had a real fight on his hands - perhaps the greatest challenge in his political career to date - to somehow compete for attention (and funding) on a stage occupied by none other than Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, John Kerry and, finally, Barack Obama.

On Friday, less than two weeks after establishing a presidential exploratory committee, the boy from Shirkieville telephoned supporters to say he'd had enough. He was dropping from the race.

"The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknown candidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath." Bayh said in a statement released Saturday. "...I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue."

The former Hoosier governor - and his incredible team of political professionals and citizen volunteers - would have had to overcome considerable obstacles if they wanted to claim a place among the celebrity front-runners.

"This wasn't about not having the support of his family," a source close to the Bayh camp told HPR. "This wasn't about not being able to raise the money. It wasn't about not being able to enlist the staff and army of volunteers.

'It was about inevitably coming up short and letting down all those folks who have devoted their time, talent and treasure to the cause," said the source, who asked not to be identified.

Evan Bayh may be popular in Indiana, but he is largely unknown beyond our borders. Even after spending a month of days over dozens of trips to the key states of Iowa and New Hampshire Bayh failed to register much more than a statistical blip on poll after poll. Each low ranking diminished his prospects. As former Ft. Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke told HPR in mid-November, key Democrats - the gatekeepers and money-makers - were "looking for someone who can win."

In the past two years Sen. Bayh has certainly exhibited a winning work ethic. His thousand-hour effort to build support for a presidential campaign took him to more than two dozen states. He appeared on countless TV news programs, offered interviews to newspapers and magazines, toured the Democratic rubber chicken circuit, and campaigned on behalf of state and national candidates across the country. In Iowa and New Hampshire he frequented dining halls and coffee houses, attended fundraisers and barbecues, hosted meet and greets, and munched on pork chops at the State Fair. In Indiana he rolled up his sleeves and campaigned for a total of nearly two weeks on behalf of congressional and state candidates.

He continued to come up short in the polls, however, and the prospect of a brutal battle looming in the home stretch may have just been too much.

"So you spend 12-14 months in a whirlwind of travel, fundraising, missing votes, missing your family, and what do you have to show for it," the source said. "You're broke, exhausted and you've strained your family to the max."

Bayh's announcement that he is leaving the race closes a remarkable chapter in his career. During the past two years his work on the hustings has bolstered an already solid reputation among moderates in the party and has earned him friends and supporters at all levels. He has gained status through his efforts to shape the Democratic agenda on matters of national security, and there is reason to suspect he will be in the forefront when the upcoming Congress debates energy and fair trade policy.

The much-touted success of the Camp Bayh immersion program may well be one of Bayh's most significant contributions to the American political process. The program trained and supplied a total of 50 staffers to targeted local, state and national races in the key presidential states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada as well as in several Indiana contests. While other presidential contenders had provided a staffer or two in the past, none had dedicated so much time and talent, and to such great effect. State party officials in New Hampshire and Iowa were particularly grateful, and the program is certain to be duplicated in the future.

"He was certainly the one with the most skin in the game up to this point, at least in Iowa," Iowa state Sen. Jeff Danielson told U.S. News & World Report. "He had the most invested and was building a real framework."

One of the greatest assets of the Bayh campaign was his political staff, which was often described by those in the business as one of the best assembled by any candidate. Finding work after a failed campaign is not always easy, according to Nancy Todd Tyner, a political consultant who specializes in gaming campaigns.

"It's a relatively small group of consultants at that level and if you're friendly with the next camp, you're in, if you're not friendly or have had a past feud you're looking to work in an ad agency - or something," Tyner said. "It's a rough field"

National Journal's Hotline reported this morning that several staffers of Bayh's leadership PAC, All America PAC, have already been contacted by other campaigns.

"All of the political staff is looking for new jobs," explained Pfeiffer, Bayh's communications director. "Sen. Bayh has been generous and is helping people with salaries and recommendations. I am leaving and am talking to people about what comes next for me."

Members of Bayh's veteran staff - well seasoned and tempered in the current political climate - are certain to rise to key roles in whatever campaign they eventually join, which may benefit Bayh in the future as well. The senator also managed to attract a national fan base of citizen volunteers, often known as "Bayh Partisans," who worked on his behalf mostly online. Some have already switched allegiance to another candidate, but many have indicated they would support another Bayh run, although websites touting the senator are rapidly disappearing from the internet.

There has been much speculation about the future of Sen. Bayh, who turns 51 next Tuesday.

"By dropping from the race before it ever really began, Bayh likely bolsters his chances at the vice presidential nomination down the line," wrote Chris Cillizza in the Washington Post's political blog. "If he had run for president and not been able to show strong in any of the four early states, he would have been forced out of the race with a whimper, not a bang. As it now stands, Bayh and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner have to be considered the frontrunners for the '08 vice presidential nomination."

An "Evan Bayh For Vice President" page has already cropped up on myspace.com.

The Indianapolis Star's editorial board recently criticized the senator for failing to produce substantial legislation in the Republican-run Congress. Today the newspaper published an article that asked "What's left for Bayh?"

"Bayh has the opportunity to emerge as a stronger leader in the Senate," the editoral reads. "To do so, he needs to develop an expertise in a few key issues - much like his Republican counterpart, Richard Lugar. Digging deep into matters such as terrorism, the economy or health care would in time help erase the lightweight tag that, deserved or not, has been hung on Bayh in recent years."

Indiana's junior senator sits on some of the senate's most powerful committees, including Armed Services and Intelligence. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has appointed Bayh to Energy as well, where he may find opportunity at last to push for the passage of his legislative proposal that would reduce U.S. oil consumption by the amount we import today. Such legislative success would lend significant substance to the Bayh resume.

With dad home for the holidays to stay, this Christmas will likely be quite special in the Bayh household. In the course of his extensive travels over the past two years, Sen. Bayh has often brought up the subject of his wife, Susan, and his eleven-year-old twin sons, Beau and Nick. In fact, on his last trip to New Hampshire, only days before he withdrew from the race, the senator said he wanted to run for president "because I care about our country and it's because I care about my children and it's because I care about all of you. And I want to see each and every American, all 300 million of us, have the hope and opportunity necessary to fulfill our destiny and fulfill our dreams."

Prominent New Hampshire Democrat says Bayh 'has lots of friends here'

2006-12-14T06:20:00.000-05:00

Prominent New Hampshire Democrat
says Bayh 'has lots of friends here'

For Howey Political Report Dec. 14, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Can "Bayh Partisanship" compete with "Obama Mania" in the contest to win a spot on the 2008 Democratic presidential ticket? One prominent New Hampshire Democrat says it's way too early to know.

More than 150 voters from all corners of the Granite State packed the conference center at the Puritan Backroom in Manchester last Saturday evening to hear Indiana's Sen. Evan Bayh explain why he thinks he should be the next president of the United States. The next day Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois drew ten times that amount at the Manchester Radisson for a rally to celebrate the state's Democratic sweep in the November midterms, an historic victory Bayh helped to create.

Bayh supporters need not despair quite yet, though they may be rightfully worried about the prospects of facing Obama on the hustings. For starters, neither Democrat has officially committed to a run, though it seems highly likely the junior senator from Indiana will commit sometime early next year. Obama, on the other hand, has been much more coy about revealing his intentions. Earlier this week the former editor of the Harvard Law Review appeared in a clip aired during the opening of Monday Night Football that suggested he was about to announce his candidacy, but finished by proclaiming his support for the Chicago Bears instead. Yesterday, James Pindell of the Boston Globe reported that a group encouraging the Illinois senator to run for president announced it will begin airing television ads in New Hampshire and Washington next week.

Second, the New Hampshire primary is more than a year away. Anything could happen. In the 1972 cycle, early Democratic favorite Edmund Muskie suffered two setbacks that proved fatal to his campaign. Publication of a document later determined to be a forgery, known as the "Canuck Letter," cost Muskie support among French-Canadians, but more damaging were reports that the candidate cried during a speech defending his wife in a snow storm outside the offices of the Manchester Union Leader. "Though Muskie later stated that what had appeared to the press as tears were actually melted snowflakes, the press reports that Muskie broke down and cried were to shatter the candidate's image as calm and reasoned," a Wikipedia article states. Or, consider the case of Republican George Romney, the front-runner in 1968 until he used the term "brainwashing" to describe attempts by U.S. generals in Vietnam to influence Romney's understanding of the war. According to Wikipedia, "Republican Congressman Robert Stafford of Vermont sounded a common concern: 'If you're running for the presidency,' he asserted, 'you are supposed to have too much on the ball to be brainwashed.'"

Finally, Bayh supporters should find most comfort in the perception that he is actually well ahead in the game in New Hampshire, having toured the state a total of 13 days over seven visits during the current election cycle. Obama is just getting started. Sunday's visit was his first.

"That's going to be the challenge for both of those campaigns, whether or not Sen. Obama can keep the momentum going and whether or not Sen. Bayh can reach out and create a message that attracts enough support for him to be successful as well," said Ray Buckley, vice chair for the New Hampshire Democratic Party. "Each one of them has amazing advisors and I'm sure they are going to try like the dickens to accomplish both of those feats."

Buckley, vice chair in the past two election cycles, is schooled in New Hampshire and national politics. He served in the state legislature for eight years and is a former House Democratic Whip. He was involved in the Al Gore campaign during the 2000 election and the Lieberman campaign in 2004. The Manchester native told HPR that Bayh "has a lot of friends here in New Hampshire.

"He's been coming up here helping out candidates and local parties for a number of years," Buckley said during a telephone interview conducted yesterday. "He has a lot of strong relationships with people that go back to the days 30 years ago when his dad ran for president. He also was very involved in assisting us in this year's election. He was very engaged, very involved in assisting the election of the house majority and the senate majority, but he also provided support for county candidates and for the governor and for the state party as well. Of all the candidates, he really was the most engaged in really assisting candidates directly."

There's no place quite like New Hampshire when it comes to presidential politics. The state has hosted the nation's first primary since 1952. In recent years it has become integral to electoral success. As Buckley pointed out, no candidate who has placed third or below in New Hampshire has gone on to become the nominee of either party. Granite State voters believe they have a responsibility to personally and thoroughly vet any man or woman who would be president. To that end they expect to be provided opportunity to meet with and question prospects.

"In so many other places people get very starry eyed when they meet somebody running for president and they're just excited having shook their hand or even being in the same room, where we in New Hampshire aren't overly impressed by the fact that you're running for president," Buckley said.

When HPR pointed out that New Hampshire voters were undeniably excited to see Sen. Obama this past weekend, Buckley said "It is very exciting and he obviously has generated a lot of support, but there's a long time between now and the primary.

"What [Obama] needs to do now is to actually go into people's living rooms and go from coffee shop to coffee shop, and diner to diner, to really talk to real New Hampshire people and get to know them, and have conversations with people that might not be overly impressed, people that he's going to need to win over."

Which is exactly what Evan Bayh has been doing since 2004, and that may explain how he managed to pack a room Saturday night at the Puritan.

"All sorts of different people from across the state came by to see [Bayh], including the state chair and a number of state senators, house members and a number of county chairs were there as well," Buckley said. "It was a good mixture. There was some young people, some students, in the room. He did a great job talking about his message."

Hamilton, Bayh and the Iraq disaster

2006-12-07T16:38:00.000-05:00

Hamilton, Bayh and the Iraq disaster

By Mark Curry and Brian A. Howey
for the Howey Political Report Dec. 7, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

WASHINGTON - As Americans began to come to grips with a war in Iraq it is not winning, according to the incoming secretary of defense, two Hoosier Democrats, Lee Hamilton and U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, were thrust into the national lens this week.

The blunt and bleak assessment of Hamilton and former Secretary of State James A. Baker III came in the week Sen. Bayh formed his presidential exploratory committee. The same day those papers were filed, Bayh questioned Robert M. Gates in a Senate confirmation hearing.

Gates rocked the nation when Sen. Carl Levin asked if the U.S. was “winning the war.” Gates responded, “No we are not.” Bayh asked Gates how he could be confident the president would heed his counsel. “Senator, because he asked me to take the job,” Gates replied. As the New York Times described the scene: Bayh waited for a more elaborate answer, and, realizing one was not coming, said simply, “He asked the others to take the jobs as well.”

“He impressed me as being candid and open minded, more realistic than what we’ve been seeing out of the administration these last six years,” Bayh said on CNN, explaining that he would vote to confirm Gates. “That said, simply changing the face at the Pentagon isn’t enough. We need a new policy that depends on what’s going on in the President’s mind. I’m not convinced that the President quite yet understands what needs to be done in Iraq.” Bayh referred to the leaked memo by National Security adviser Steven Hadley and said, “Ultimately, will he listen? Hadley leaked a memo with doubts about al-Maliki. Even (Donald) Rumsfeld was considering other options. Gates is a good man, but will he (President Bush) listen? Only time will tell.”

On Wednesday, it was Hamilton’s turn and he and Baker issued a stunning report that, when taken into context of the political rhetoric Americans heard in the weeks before the Nov. 7 elections, was jarring.

“We no longer can afford to stay the course,” Baker said in presenting the report at a news conference. “If we do what we recommend in this report, it will certainly improve our chances for success.”

Hamilton echoed his colleague’s sentiments, saying the Iraqi people are “suffering great hardship” and their lives must be improved. “The current approach is not working and the ability of the United States to influence events is diminishing,” Hamilton said. “Our ship of state has hit rough waters. It must now chart a new way forward.”

Hamilton called the situation “grave and deteriorating.” The group’s co-chair said, however, that “not all options have been exhausted.”

The report suggests: “By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq. At that time, U.S. combat forces in Iraq could be deployed only in units embedded with Iraqi forces, in rapid-reaction and special operations teams and in training, equipping, advising, force protection and search and rescue.”

Hamilton outlined three important points: “Our three recommendations are equally important and re-enforce each other. (1) A change in the primary mission of U.S. forces. (2) Prompt action by the Iraqi government to achieve milestones and national reconciliation. And (3) A new and enhanced diplomatic effort in Iraq and within the region.”

NBC analyst Tim Russert reacted to the press conference, saying, “I was so taken by the bluntness and how bleak this report is.”

President Bush responded by saying, “This report gives a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq. We will take every proposal seriously, and we will act in a timely fashion.” He urged Congress to take the group’s proposals seriously and work with the administration and find “common ground” on Iraq policy. “The country is tired of pure political bickering,” Bush said. In this mornings presser with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Bush referred to Iraq as “unsettled.” When pressed, Bush said, “It’s bad in Iraq. Did that help?”

U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Dick Lugar reacted: “I welcome the contributions of Secretary James Baker, Congressman Lee Hamilton and the entire Iraq Study Group. They have undertaken an exhaustive inquiry into the current situation in Iraq. The recommendations of the Iraq Study Group should be absorbed and considered by policymakers who are grappling with the complexities of Iraq policy and issues involving the broader landscape of the Middle East. I also welcome the concurrent activity in the Bush administration to review present policies and consider new approaches. As this process moves forward, Congress must be a constructive partner to the administration. Senator Biden has indicated that beginning in January, the Foreign Relations Committee will hold a series of hearings to continue our examination of U.S. options in Iraq. Since the summer of 2002, the Foreign Relations Committee has held roughly 40 hearings on Iraq under the chairmanships of Senator Biden and myself. We look forward to welcoming administration officials, members of the Iraq Study Group and other outside experts as we seek their views about how the United States can achieve the best possible outcome in Iraq.”

U.S. Sen. John McCain said this morning, “The one thing worse than an exhausted Army and Marine Corps is a defeated Army and Marine Corps.” McCain called the ISG report a “recipe for disaster” as he met with Baker and Hamilton. “Withdraw the troops and still have American troops embedded with Iraq troops puts at risk a large number of advisers,” he said.

Hamilton acknowledged, “You’re absolutely right about that. Those men and women will be in a place of danger. We will have combat forces there to protect the embedded forces. It’s a risky mission.” But Hamilton pushed back, saying at one point that Congress had been much too “timid” in its oversight of the war.

Bayh on the talk shows

Sen. Bayh received a huge amount of national exposure this week, from his Sunday appearance on ABC’s “This Week,” to the Gates confirmation hearing on Tuesday, and appearances on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News.

On the war in Iraq, Bayh told ABC’s George Stephanopolous, “This problem is not going to be solved in Washington, not by the national security adviser and not by the president of the United States. It is going to be solved by Iraqis in Baghdad and across Iraq. If they don’t reconcile themselves to a common future and a common country, we are only operating on the margins.” Asked what he would do about U.S. presence, Bayh said, “I’ll tell you exactly what I’d do. I’d do the opposite of what the President did a month ago when he picked up the phone and called Prime Minister Al-Maliki and said, ‘Don’t worry; we’re staying.’ I’d pick up the phone and say, ‘You know what? We’re not staying forever.’”

Bayh said the central government must assert its authority. “If you do, we’ll stand by you and make a go of it because we want you to be successful. But if you don’t, there’s nothing we can do for you.” Asked if he would start to withdaw troops, Bayh said, “I’d like them to know we’re going to begin the process now to bring our presence in Iraq to a close. To show that I meant business, I would bring out a small amount of troops ... in the next few months.” Bayh said he would call a “Dayton-like conference” to “let them resolve their differences. Then I would time our departure in a way that gave them the best chance. If they can’t get their act together, we can’t do this for them.”

Bayh criticized President Bush’s statement in Amman, Jordan, last week that, “We’re going to stay as long as the Iraqis want us.” Bayh said, “That is not an acceptable standard for our troops. It’s not the advice he’s getting that matters, it’s what’s in his mind and I don’t think he grasps the essential truth there yet.”

On MSNBC, Bayh was asked by Nora O’Donnell, “Senator, let me ask you, you voted for the Iraq war, do you believe it was a mistake?”

Bayh responded, “Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction. That’s why I voted like I did, I thought that leaving weapons like that in the hands of a man like him was a danger to the United States. Knowing what we know now, I would not cast the same vote.”

Bayh stakes bid on national security

While Bayh spent much of 2006 building a $10.7 million war chest and assembling a highly lauded campaign staff, he is hoping to use not only his red state political successes and executive experience in Indiana to his advantage, but as a pragmatic voice on national security. He has worked all year to cultivate and nurture that reputation. In a speech last February he said a “tough and smart” approach to Iraq would “establish benchmarks for success, a timeline for progress, accountability for results and candor about how we are doing.”

He has repeatedly criticized Republicans for being “a lot better at national security politics than national security policy,” and claimed the administration’s "stunning incompetence” has “undermined our security.”

“Iraq is the foremost example,” he said in a July speech. “They have turned it into a tragic, tragic mess.” As a member of two key committees, Armed Services and Intelligence, Sen. Bayh will have an opportunity in the next Congress to help make good on his oft-repeated boast that “Democrats can do better.” In order to do that, he will first have to face down those from his own party who seek to oppose him. Bayh was an early proponent for the war in Iraq, and his October 2002 vote to authorize an invasion disappointed even some Indiana Democratic activists who supported his governorship. He continues to try and rally Democrats to his cause.

“If people don’t trust us with our lives, they’re unlikely to trust us with anything else,” Bayh told thousands of Democrats during his travels through two dozen states in the past year. Mike Glover of the Associated Press wrote that during a visit to Iowa on Monday Bayh urged Democrats to “seek practical answers to the daily challenges facing Americans. If not, the party’s control of Congress could be brief.”

Bayh’s critical timing

The announcement last Sunday on ABC that he would form an exploratory committee, timed only two days before the Gates hearing, has helped to substantiate Bayh’s security credentials. The resulting widespread media attention may also serve to bolster his standing in polls that consistently rank him in the bottom tier among potential 2008 contenders. Last week the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released a likeability poll of 20 top American political figures and Bayh finished 16th, below George Bush but above John Kerry. A full three-quarters of respondents indicated they did not have enough information about Bayh to decide if they like him or not, suggesting support for a Bayh candidacy has the potential to grow if he can manage to get his message out to the voters.

This weekend the former governor will take his message directly to the people of New Hampshire, where dissatisfaction with President Bush and the war in Iraq looms so large that for the first time in more than 100 years Democrats captured both state houses in the midterms.

One Granite State voter who was very happy with that outcome is Frank Murphy, the retired social worker who for two years served as Democratic chair for the town of Keene. In an interview conducted yesterday by telephone, Murphy told HPR that he hasn’t decided yet whether he will attend a Bayh event planned in his hometown this Sunday. He said he may be out drumming up support for the presidential candidate he endorses, former Alaskan Sen. Mike Gravel, who will also be in town. Murphy did say that he approved of Bayh’s questioning during the Gates hearing.

“I think everybody did well,” Murphy said of the hearing. “I don’t think [Bayh] said anything that made him stand out above the crowd. I thought his remarks were useful and illuminating and I was glad he made them.” But asked if he thought New Hampshire Democrats would be troubled by Bayh’s initial support of the Iraq war, he said, “That’s tough to say. There aren’t that many people that are aware of the vote. Of course in the campaign they would be. I think if you voted for it at this point it’s a negative, but then you have to look at the fact we voted for John Kerry in the last election, who voted for the Iraq war resolution. I don’t think it’s considered a good vote.”

In fact, a substantial majority of Americans supported the invasion of Iraq, although a Pew analysis at the time noted “the level of public support depends upon several important contingencies: whether or not U.S. allies and the United Nations go along with the effort; the level of potential casualties; and the nature of the evidence discovered by the U.N. weapons inspectors.” And, of the top Democrats considered possible presidential material at present, only U.S. Sen. Barack Obama can say he opposed the war from the beginning. Still, Bayh can expect concerns about Iraq to dominate just about wherever he goes, especially now that he’s offically a potential candidate looking for campaign funding. In the past week he’s been to Ohio, Minnesota and Illinois. Next week he visits Florida and Texas.

Like every other presidential candidate, Indiana’s junior senator will be asked to answer important questions related to Iraq in the months ahead. Donors and voters will want to know why he supported the invasion, how he reacted as the situation evolved and what he thinks should be done next. He will also be judged on his ability to shape legislation and policy impacting our role in that country. His remarkable career has anticipated a guiding role in national politics, yet he has landed in the midst of a peculiar American trauma, a time calling for the strongest brand of leadership. As Murphy said at the end of our interview, “If you’re in contact with the senator, tell him to keep working. America is in difficulty.”

Evan Bayh has a year to make the case that he possesses the strength and intelligence to lead Democrats and the country through the difficult years that lay ahead.

Bayh carves niche in cyberspace, but will it matter?

2006-11-30T13:47:00.000-05:00

Bayh carves niche in cyberspace, but will it matter?

For Howey Political Report Nov. 30, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Two days ago, Democratic congressional candidate Barry Welsh woke up still owing $3,000 in campaign expenses accumulated during his failed bid to unseat Republican Mike Pence in Indiana's 6th CD.

By bedtime, the debt was gone, thanks to Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, caretaker of the liberal political blog site found at dailykos.com.

"Barry Welsh ran a brave race in a tough district," Zuniga wrote in a brief plea posted online at 2:46 p.m. Tuesday. "Let’s help him retire that debt and get him prepped for his big rematch in 2008." The blogger contributed $1,000, and almost immediately donations began to roll in, mostly in virtual $10s and $20s, until the deficit was officially erased around 10:30 that night.

Welsh's experience demonstrates that the internet is playing an increasingly important function in grassroots politics, a role certain to be even more vital in the next election cycle, the 2008 presidential campaign.

Evan Bayh has ramped up his online presence in a much-publicized effort to carve a niche in cyberspace. In addition to the standard fare found on his official senate website, he has a page on facebook.com that boasts 5,000 "friends" and recently launched a debate on gather.com. His leadership PAC, All America PAC, is updated often, with links to websites touting the senator and the causes and candidates supported by the PAC. Bayh also has penned commentary for numerous blogs.

"The internet component is very important to our overall communication strategy," explained Dan Pfeiffer, the senator's communications director. "Americans are spending far less time using traditional forms of media and a far greater portion of their time online and any communications strategy must take this into account. The form in which you reach out to these voters must reflect this change as well and must be one that they are comfortable with."

The authors of a Nov. 6th analysis by the Pew Internet & American Life Project wrote, "Looking ahead, it's clear that the Internet's role in politics will continue evolving as the technology improves and users continuously adapt it for new purposes....But thus far, the most compelling narrative about the internet's political is not about candidates' skill with new media. Rather, it centers on stories from the grassroots: activists' use of email and Web sites; small donors' contributions online; bloggers' passion to tell stories and debate issues; and amateur videographers' quest to record 'gotcha' moments."

Zach Wendling is one Hoosier blogger who says he is skeptical of the netroots' influence. Wendling maintains the Indiana Blog Review, a website that monitors and highlights many of the state's most active blogs.

"The blogosphere has proven good at two things: being an echo chamber for candidates and for countering attacks," Wendling told HPR. "I have no doubt that if Bayh were on the ticket, the left side of the Hoosier blogosphere would join in, and the right side would perhaps be more inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. The big question, though, is whether blogs have any influence or whether they are just talking to each other."

Democrat Barry Welsh is convinced the netroots represent the future of politics.

"The netroots will be crucial especially in a national campaign," he said. "As an 'Indiana Boy' I would like to see Sen. Bayh as president.... I don't know if the senator, or if many in Indiana, understand the importance of the netroots, but that is the future of politics and will be even bigger in 2008 than in 2006."

A recent Pew poll found that nearly one in five American adults turned to the internet for news or information about politics and the midterm elections. It seems likely that someday, and it could be sooner rather than later, a politician will win by mastering the medium the way FDR perfected radio or Ronald Reagan exploited television. Only then will we know that the internet age in politics has truly arrived.

Helmke on Bayh: Democrats looking for a winner

2006-11-16T17:57:00.000-05:00

Helmke on Bayh: Democrats looking for a winner

For Howey Political Report Nov. 16, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Some time in the next several weeks Evan Bayh is expected to announce his intention to seek the Democratic nomination to be president of the United States. If so, Indiana's former governor will be tested as never before, according to Paul Helmke, the Republican who opposed Bayh's first senatorial run in 1998.

The former mayor of Fort Wayne told HPR that he expects a Bayh presidential bid to focus on the junior senator's moderate brand as well as his role in last week's defeat of Republican incumbents in three Hoosier congressional districts.

In the past 10 days the senator has used every opportunity to promote the Democratic victories in Indiana's U.S. House races as a template for turning other red states blue. Yesterday, nearly 20 reporters and camera crews from three major networks crowded for more than half an hour into the reception area of Bayh's Senate office. The gaggle was advertised as a "press availability" to meet with Bayh and Congressmen-elect Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Brad Ellsworth (IN-8) and Baron Hill (IN-9). Staged during a pause in the Senate Armed Forces Committee hearings on Iraq, the event also afforded reporters an opportunity to probe the senator's stance on the war. Today's New York Times reports Bayh advocated "moderation between the [Democratic] party's liberal and hawkish wings" in remarks during the hearing.

After 12 years at the helm of Indiana's second largest city, Helmke is well acquainted with the partisan forces that tug at a moderate politician. These days he serves as president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence headquartered in Washington.

"My hope is that we're entering a time period when folks are going to start asking what works, not just what fits the philosophy that someone bought into," he said in an interview with HPR. As evidence, Helmke noted that candidates supported by the Brady organization in last week's elections defeated those backed by the NRA in better than 80 percent of the 45 races where they went head-to-head. When asked if he thought the victories represented a tipping point, Helmke said. "I don't think we've tipped yet. I think it's a shift in momentum, clearly."

Republicans anticipate that a divided Democratic party will tilt noticeably left. "The primary mission of the Republican Party in the 110th Congress will be to defeat the agenda of the Democratic Party in Congress," Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN-6) wrote in a statement to fellow House Republicans after last Tuesday's losses. "Each of us must dedicate ourselves to using our talents and expertise to dismantle Democratic arguments and expose their liberal, big government agenda at every turn." Such pressure from the right, constantly pushing at the center, may well empower the Democratic left and weaken party moderates. HPR asked Helmke's take on what that might mean for Bayh's presidential prospects.

"The parties want to win," he said "I think one of the things they're going to look at is how best to win.... Evan's background both as governor and senator has been one to try and find what works. Obviously one of the strengths that a former governor brings to the job is that they've had to do that.

"In my new job I talk to a lot of people with a lot of money that are involved in politics and progressive causes around the country and I get asked a lot about Evan. His name is coming up and a lot of them that are Democrats seem to be looking for someone who can win."

Helmke provides a frank discussion of his senate race in a book co-authored with Andrew Jorash in 2001, Son of a Son of a Politician, which described his opponent as someone who's very good at self-control and accustomed to having things run smoothly for him. Helmke said he believes it is still true today.

"One of his strengths is that he doesn't get ruffled. He keeps his cool under pressure," he said of Bayh. "He doesn't get surprised."

But Helmke believes that sometimes Bayh displays too much polish and calm and not enough personality. "Sometimes if you over prepare, over out-think the thing, you come across as not having real emotions or real concerns there," he said. "My sense is he's worked on that. Some of the reports I've heard is that the speaking style, he has to work on that. You need to be able to connect with the voter."

In the two years since the last presidential election Bayh has visited New Hampshire and Iowa a total of 15 times. Helmke said trials and tribulations on the hustings provide candidates opportunity to "work any kinks in your presentation, you work those out on the campaign trail.

"I think he's getting tested a lot more than he ever did in Indiana. In Indiana he started out well-known, he started out with credibility. Even when he ran for secretary of state the first time everyone knew who he was. As he does the presidential run the folks out there don't know. So, that's where he will get more of an honest appraisal as to how he's doing and I'm sure he's getting that and I'm sure he's learning from it."

Midterms good for Bayh's presidential prospects

2006-11-09T16:20:00.000-05:00

Midterms good for Bayh's presidential prospects

For Howey Political Report Nov. 9, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Democratic voters were good to Evan Bayh in this year's midterm elections.

The two-term senator from Indiana is not scheduled to run for re-election until 2010, but he did have a lot riding on the success of numerous candidates in races throughout the country. For starters, our former governor invested manpower, funding and reputation in the Hoosier state's three key congressional races.

The three victories support Bayh's claim, delivered to thousands of Democrats all across the country, that he can help the party win votes in red states. He wasted no time touting the successes with a statement disseminated Tuesday night.

"The lesson of this election is clear," the statement read. "We won by turning the red states of the heartland blue. Indiana, which has voted for the Republicans in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections, sent three new Democrats to congress. This is not an accident.

"Out here in Indiana, we have developed a formula for winning under the most difficult of circumstances. We are fiscally responsible, tough on national security, share the values of middle class families, and value progress over partisanship."

One Indiana Democrat who credited Bayh's support with aiding the cause was Evan Kelsay, who managed Terry Coriden's losing campaign in State Senate District 41.

"Evan Bayh's Sunday rally for Baron Hill definitely went a long way to energizing the Democratic base in Bartholomew County, a heavily Republican area by the numbers," Kelsay, who was running his first campaign, told HPR. "Voter turnout was at presidential-year levels.

"In a place where none of its 19 county-wide Democratic candidates won their races, Baron was able to keep pace with Mike Sodrel, only losing [the county] by 306 votes," Kelsay said. "In all honesty, that was a win for Baron, because it forced Sodrel to play defense and not to take the county for granted."

Bayh's influence reached well beyond Indiana's borders. In total, the senator campaigned, contributed money and/or provided paid staff for approximately 350 candidates and party committees nationwide, said Dan Pfeiffer, the senator's communications director. Bayh's leadership PAC, All America PAC, featured 28 state and federal races in 14 states, with Democrats winning two dozen. Perhaps more significantly, AAPAC provided 50 paid staffers from the Camp Bayh program to campaigns in the key presidential primary states of Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Bayh blogger Rob Harrington of Confessions of a Hoosier Democrat reported that the Camp Bayh staff tallied an 18-7 record on Tuesday.

Politicians took notice. Yesterday's Hotline included this tidbit under the headline "Bayh The Key To Victory In IA?":

"IA GOP sources credit staffers detailed to IA state leg races by Sen. Evan Bayh's All America PAC for the Dem victory in the state. Approx. 25 staffers paid by Bayh's PAC helped IA Dems work on those campaigns; Republicans had fewer than 10 paid staffs working on leg. races (Hotline reporting, 11/7)"

Boston Globe political correspondent James Pindell, who served as a panelist at this year's HPR Forum, said Bayh has also earned the right to bask in an historical Democratic victory in New Hampshire, where the party gained the majority in both state houses for the first time since 1874.

"There's no doubt that Evan Bayh can take some credit for the fact that Democrats in New Hampshire had an historic night," Pindell told HPR. "He gave his time. He gave his money. He also allowed 15 staffers to share their resources for these races. The most important thing Evan Bayh can take away from the victories in New Hampshire is a more knowledgeable staff."

Pindell, who hails from New Castle, said that while some New Hampshire candidates may not exactly be indebted to Evan Bayh, they "at least have to give him a fair shot. So Evan Bayh definitely does come off better than most presidential candidates. There's only probably John Edwards that could even come close in parallelling the influence that Bayh has had."

Bayh has a stake in Tuesday's elections

2006-11-02T17:28:00.000-05:00

Bayh has a stake in Tuesday's elections

For Howey Political Report Nov. 2, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Break out the lawn chairs, folks, the 2006 midterms and the battle to control Congress are here. At least three of Indiana's congressional races are promising some of the best and most expensive fireworks seen in these parts for quite some time.

Money is pouring in faster than a July gully washer. Yesterday, Congressional Quarterly reported almost $1.5 million new expenditures in the 9th CD by the Republican and Democratic congressional committees. That's just what the national parties reported spending. In one day. In a single race. For representative.

As advertised, Evan Bayh has rolled up his sleeves and come home to join the fun. The boy from Shirkieville, who was raised on all things political, will be offering his good name and considerable talent to encourage voters to support Democratic candidates in the 2nd, 8th and 9th CD races.

Bayh's stake in these midterms is not just political, it's also personal. He's expended thousands of hours and millions of dollars preparing for a run at the White House in 2008. Indiana's three close races present opportunity and challenge to add substance to Bayh's assertion that his moderate brand can help Democrats win red state voters. The two-term senator would benefit should Tuesday's winners credit his assistance, but Democratic losses will be seen as a potential liability.

The senator's communications director, Dan Pfeiffer, tells HPR that Bayh is slated to attend nine events in Indiana, including five press events, two GOTV rallies, a J-J dinner and a breakfast fundraiser.

This afternoon Sen. Bayh will appear at the Kokomo UAW offices with Joe Donnelly, who hopes to unseat Rep. Chris Chocola in the 2nd. Research 2000 reported the Democrat was ahead in an Oct. 31 poll 50/47. This evening Bayh's schedule indicates he will attend the St. Joseph County Jefferson-Jackson dinner and fundraiser at the Mishawaka Fraternal Order of Police building.

Tomorrow he meets Donnelly at a breakfast fundraiser in South Bend, followed by a press event at the Schafer Gear Works. Sunday Bayh is slated to appear again with Donnelly at a press event in Logansport in the afternoon.

Sunday evening he will travel to Columbus for a press event with Baron Hill, who is challenging Rep. Mike Sodrel to regain the seat he once held in the 9th CD. An Oct. 29 poll conducted by Zogby indicated the Democrat was leading by a two-point margin (48/46).

Monday noon Bayh is scheduled to appear with Hill at a GOTV rally in Jeffersonville.

In the afternoon of the last day before the election, Sen. Bayh is set for a press event in Terre Haute with Brad Ellsworth. Recent media reports showed Ellsworth leading Rep. John Hostettler by seven to ten points. Monday night the Plumbers & Pipe Fitters Union plans a GOTV rally with Bayh and Ellsworth in Evansville.

Bayh, Obama and the hearts and minds of Democratic voters

2006-10-26T22:13:00.000-04:00

Bayh, Obama and the hearts and minds of Democratic voters

For Howey Political Report Oct. 26, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Democratic hearts and minds are atwitter with the prospect that Barack Obama may enter the 2008 presidential contest. The 45-year-old, second-year senator from Illinois launched a wave of Obama mania last week when he acknowledged he is considering a run for the White House.

Evan Bayh take note: Your party hungers for a leader.

Conventional wisdom indicates Americans expect leadership experience to figure prominently in a presidential resume. We demand a substantial record of risk-taking and decision-making - the kind you get as a company founder, CEO, mayor or, most especially, a governor. After all, four of the past five presidents have served as governors, which is why Evan Bayh stresses his two terms as Indiana' top executive almost every time he takes to the stump.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, boasts a resume thin on substance: Eight years in the Illinois state senate and two years in his current job. No wonder, as Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post noted, he is sometimes described as "wet behind the ears" and "not ready to assume the role of spokesman for his party."

Enthusiasm for Obama is rooted in significant strengths, however. In an article published mid-summer, Cillizza cited Obama's potential as a top-tier fundraiser and stated he would be the only viable Democratic contender who can claim to have opposed the invasion of Iraq from the beginning (Obama was in the Illinois legislature when the invasion was authorized in 2002).

But at the top of any list of Obama's strengths is the one attribute Bayh has yet to demonstrate, and that is the ability to excite the masses.

"There's little question that Obama is the hottest political Democratic commodity in the country right now, drawing support from across the geographic and ideological spectrum," Cillizza wrote.

Many observers have noted that the bright lights of an Obama campaign would dim the prospects of Bayh and others, including John Edwards and John Kerry. "Should Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton both enter the race, it would likely turn the nominating contest into a two-person affair," according to Cillizza.

My guess is Obama will resist the temptation to actively seek a spot on the 2008 ticket, although he may be signalling his interest in the number two spot. Regardless of the final decision, I do believe Obama fever offers Bayh a valuable lesson.

By most criteria the Hoosier senator's 2008 proto-campaign is among the most advanced to date, be it Republican or Democrat. The Bayh organization is one of the best in the business. He's lined up major donors. He has established a solid reputation in the senate and with the media. He even boasts a growing number of followers.

But he has yet to exhibit the quality of leadership that excites, motivates and otherwise inspires others on the scale that will be necessary to unite and guide a fragmented Democratic Party.

"With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed," Abraham Lincoln said during his Aug. 21, 1858, debate with Stephan A. Douglas. "Consequently, he who moulds public sentiment goes deeper than he who enacts statutes or pronounces decisions. He makes statutes and decisions possible or impossible to be executed."

Bayh may want to keep that Lincoln quote handy as he continues to fashion and adapt a strategy aimed at winning the hearts and minds of today's voters.

Bayh Sees Red, Hopes To Turn Blue

2006-10-19T20:06:00.000-04:00

Bayh Sees Red, Hopes To Turn Blue

For Howey Political Report Oct. 19, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Evan Bayh will be chalking up some serious frequent campaigner miles in the 18 days remaining before the midterm elections, with announced visits to five states, including two trips to Indiana.

"Bayh to Campaign in Red States and Districts Between Now and Election Day" was the headline on a news release distributed by the senator's office earlier this week. According to the published schedule, Indiana's junior senator will dedicate nine days supporting Hoosier Democrats. He is slated to be on the road a total of a dozen days during the time period.

Earlier this week Bayh visited Atlanta where he attended a fundraiser on behalf of gubernatorial candidate Mark Taylor. Polls indicate the Democrat trails GOP incumbent Sonny Perdue by 20 points, with as many as 15 percent undecided. President Bush carried Georgia 58/41 in 2004 (C-SPAN).

Today our former governor is in Nevada (Bush 50/48) stumping on behalf of the Dina Titus for Governor campaign, congressional candidate Tessa Hafen and other Democrats. Bayh is slated to appear at a Titus event to discuss senior issues at a town hall forum in Las Vegas. Recent polling in the gubernatorial race favored Republican Jim Gibbons 45/36, with 10 percent undecided (Las Vegas Review Journal). The same poll found Hafen trailing 47/37 in an evenly split district.

New Hampshire (Kerry 50/49) is on the agenda for midweek. Tuesday he visits Norton's Classic Cafe to stump for Nashua City Democrats. Wednesday, a busy day for Bayh, begins at the Bedford Village Inn for a Politics and Eggs forum.

Later he flies to Kentucky (Bush 60/40) for an appearance on behalf of Ken Lucas, Democratic candidate in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District. Two recent polls indicate voters favor incumbent Geoff Davis by a slim margin (46/49, 44/47).

The day ends in Indiana (Bush 60/39). Bayh's office has not released any details on either of two trips to the Hoosier state, including the first, which runs Wednesday through next Friday. The senator's news release reported Bayh's agenda simply as "Indiana Campaigning with Congressional and Legislative Candidates." Earlier this month he conducted a two-day campaign blitz on behalf of Democrats running in the three congressional races considered by many observers to be among the state's most competitive - the 2nd, 8th and 9th. It would not be surprising to see a Bayh visit to the 3rd CD before the election. Yesterday HPR reported that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put the 3rd CD on its "emerging races" category, and that Democratic challenger Thomas Hayhurst holds a significant money advantage over incumbent Mark Souder. HPR has listed the race as "Leans Souder" throughout the current election cycle.

On Nov. 1st Bayh is slated to appear at a fundraiser for Tammy Duckworth, the Democrat who hopes to win the 6th CD of Illinois (Kerry 55/45), the seat vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Henry Hyde. A Reuters/Zogby poll released earlier this month shows Republican Peter Roskar trailing 43/38.

Although he has yet to announce any further details, Bayh's communications team indicated the senator will stump in Indiana Nov. 2-7.

Ready to rumble: Bayh in state to support Democratic candidates

2006-10-05T08:17:00.000-04:00

Ready to rumble: Bayh in state to support Democratic candidates

For Howey Political Report Oct. 5, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

In the past year or so Sen. Evan Bayh has worked to make a name for himself by traveling the Democratic Party's rubber chicken circuit through 22 states, often speaking at Jefferson-Jackson dinners or during smaller gatherings such as fund raisers and more intimate events. In the key presidential states of Iowa and New Hampshire he has labored a total of 29 days on behalf of party organizations and candidates.

Today and tomorrow the senator weighs in on the Indiana midterms with visits to support Democratic congressional candidates in three of the most closely watched races in the country. He's also promised to deliver a check to the state's Democratic Party for the amount of $100,000.

This morning he appeared at events in Mishawaka and La Porte in the 2nd Congressional District with Joe Donnelly before heading south to Terre Haute, where he will stage a press conference with 8th CD nominee Brad Ellsworth. Tomorrow he teams with Ellsworth for a media event in Evansville, and then travels to New Albany where he and Baron Hill of Indiana's 9th will present yet another press conference.

In the past several weeks Indiana's junior senator had stated intentions to support Hoosier Democratic campaigns, but dates were not made available until Monday when National Journal's Hotline blog featured the announcement.

"Bayh will also campaign for IN state house candidates and plans to appear in television spots on their behalf," the Hotline article read. "A Bayh spokesman stresses that Bayh 'is not going to be decisive in these races,' but attributes some of their competitiveness to the trail Bayh, who served two terms as GOV." The blog further notes the senator will travel in support of candidates in Ohio, Kentucky, Iowa, Nevada and Illinois.

It wasn't until late yesterday morning that All America PAC, Bayh's leadership PAC, released a media advisory detailing the former governor's agenda during his return to the Hoosier state.

"Press conference on Efforts to Stop Unfair Trade" was Bayh's first stop this morning at the United Steel Workers Union Hall in Mishawaka. Following the media event both Bayh and Donnelly met with union workers who manufacture Humvees at AM General. "Greet Diners and Coffee at Louie's Restaurant" in La Porte was to follow.

This afternoon's event with Ellsworth is billed as a "Press conference on Implementing the 9/11 Commission Recommendations" at the Vigo County Courthouse at 2:30. Tomorrow both Democrats plan to stage a similar event at Evansville Regional Airport's main terminal at 10:45 a.m.

Hill and Bayh will appear at yet another press conference on the 9/11 recommendations in New Albany at 2 p.m. tomorrow.

Sen. Bayh's $100,000 contribution to the Indiana Democratic Party is more than double the total financial support he has offered fellow Hoosiers thus far in the current election cycle. In addition to a $25,000 check already delivered to the state party the senator has contributed as much as $10,000 to several candidates, including the three closest congressional races (See HPR, Sept. 21). According to data available at the Federal Election Commission website, Sen. Bayh's leadership PAC has contributed more than $120,000 to Democratic committees and candidates in the 2005-2006 election cycle through the end of June.

Last Saturday through Monday Sen. Bayh undertook a tour of Iowa to appear at fundraisers and other events on behalf of local Democratic organizations and candidates. (He was slated to begin the trip on Friday but remained an extra day in Washington to vote against the military tribunal bill.)

"Sen. Bayh came out to help draw a crowd essentially and he did a wonderful job of that," according to Ben Foecke, campaign manager for Merle Johnson, a candidate for the Iowa state senate. Bayh supported Johnson's campaign at an event in Ankeny, a northern suburb of Des Moines, on Sunday evening. It was one of nine such events over the course of the trip. Foecke, who said his campaign planned the appearance on a week's notice, was happy to report that more than 80 people attended. "It was a crowd for this community," he said. Foecke indicated attendees were encouraged to make a "free-will donation" but did not know how much money was collected (Bayh's office was just as tight-lipped).

Carrie Tedore and her husband Scott co-hosted a similar to-do in Dubuque during the Saturday night gridiron matchup between the Iowa State Hawkeyes and Ohio State Buckeyes. Tedore also was unaware how much was raised during her event, but she was quite certain Sen. Bayh made a positive impression.

"He was the guest of honor and he did say a few words," Tedore told HPR. "He is a very engaging speaker. He spoke about the need for change and what's gone wrong and he was very motivating as a matter of fact."

The Tedores laid out what she described as a traditional midwestern barbecue at their home on West Third Street. She said about 60 local Democrats were on hand to hear Bayh speak, nearly as many as attended a similar event hosted the previous week at a local vineyard and headlined by another presidential contender, Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.).

"The guests stayed through the Hawkeye game so I got to speak to a lot of them and they were very impressed," the hostess said. "Some came to the event just knowing the name and they left knowing the man. It was a really wonderful thing. I think it was great for him and I think it was great for the [local] Democratic leadership."

According to Tedore, the guests' "jaws hit the floor" when Bayh discussed Indiana's 21st Century Scholars Program. "People couldn't believe that actually wasn't just a dream, that was actually a reality," she said.

Bayh's office has yet to announce the who, what, when and where portion of his plans to campaign for Indiana statehouse races. HPR forecasts a close contest for control in both the House and Senate, and the former governor's popularity remains high among critical demographic segments (see HPR, Sept. 21). Bayh's support could spur persuadable voters and Democrats who might otherwise stay at home to cast deciding ballots in several key matchups, not the least of which is Senate District 41, where Republican Greg Walker leads Democrat Terry Coriden in the battle for Bob Garton's former seat.

After 14 trips and 30 days, Bayh trails in N.H., Iowa

2006-09-28T14:31:00.000-04:00

After 14 trips and 30 days, Bayh trails in N.H., Iowa

For Howey Political Report Sept. 28, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Since July 2005, Indiana Democrat Evan Bayh has racked up a total of almost 30 days visiting two states considered key to winning his party's presidential nomination.

Last weekend the senator made his fifth trip to New Hampshire and tomorrow he begins his ninth tour of Iowa. According to Democracy In Action statistics, only one other Democrat, John Edwards, has invested more time in both states.

It was a busy week for the New Hampshire Democratic Party with no fewer than five presidential contenders romancing voters at one point or another somewhere in the state. The list of rival suitors included Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.); Govs. Tom Vilsack (Iowa) and Bill Richardson (N.M.), and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner.

A two-day swing through the state began on a fortuitous note for Bayh when the Associated Press disseminated an article on Sunday wherein he asserted that Iraq is not the central front in the war on terrorism.

"Iraq is taking the focus away from Afghanistan and Iran," he told reporter Norma Love. "We've diverted so many resources to Iraq." The 500-word article went on to mention the senator's contention that the U.S. needs to begin the process of leaving Iraq by stabilizing the country so more focus can be placed on Afghanistan and Iran.

"We need to say we're not going to be there forever," he said.

Sunday night the former Indiana governor appeared at a "Countdown to Victory" dinner hosted by the Manchester City Democrats. Bayh said his party needs to do a better job of standing up to Republicans on national security and pocketbook issues, according to Riley Yates of the Union Leader. He also presented the group with a check for $5,000.

Bayh's message earned a warm reception among the 125 in attendance, and news reports of appearances in Nashua and North Hampton were also favorable.

Tomorrow the centrist Democrat is slated to begin a four-day schedule in Iowa with a Friday evening event at the Boone County Brown-Woodard Dinner. Saturday evening he will attend a reception honoring Dubuque County Democrats. Sunday begins with a breakfast for U.S. House candidate Phil Hare in Rock Island, Ill. Bayh will then attend a reception for Scott County Democrats in Davenport, a Get Out The Vote Rally in Coralville, and an appearance in Ankeny on behalf of the local candidate for state senate. Monday he is slated to appear at separate venues for state senate candidates in Mason City, Cedar Falls, Webster City and Fort Dodge.

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, another Democrat considered a potential presidential candidate, is also slated to appear in Iowa over the weekend. Obama will campaign in Davenport for Bruce Baley, who is running for a seat in the U.S. House. This will be his second visit to the Hawkeye State - the first generated reams of publicity earlier this month.

Dan Pfeiffer, Bayh's communications director, told HPR the senator's presentation throughout Iowa will be similar to what he offered Democrats in Manchester last weekend. According to the Union Leader's coverage of that event, Bayh discussed healthcare, education, economic priorities and the need for Democrats to counter the consistent and politically successful GOP message.

Despite Sen. Bayh's extraordinary efforts, indications are he has yet to win Democrats in the numbers required to finish well in the early contests.

In last Monday's Union Leader, Yates cited State Sen. Lou D'Allesandro who said the Indiana Democrat is not among the first tier of potential candidates.

"I think Bayh's right behind them, but he is behind them," D'Allesandro said.

Bayh has implied he intends to make up his mind about a run over the coming Thanksgiving holiday. Fortunately for him plenty of time remains to try and make up deficits in the polls should he choose to seek the nomination.

Will Bayh deliver Indiana in the midterms?

2006-09-21T14:54:00.000-04:00

Will Bayh deliver Indiana in the midterms?

For Howey Political Report Sept. 21, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Will Evan Bayh deliver Indiana in the midterms?

For years now Sen. Bayh has been traveling all across this great land promising to deliver Democratic victory in Red State America. That time has come.

Voters in Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th Congressional Districts are now high-value targets in the midterm battle over control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Polls indicate these three districts are teetering away from Republicans, who are struggling to maintain a 15-seat margin in Washington. HPR rates all three as "tossup."

Time and money factor mightily in any political scrape, more so in the close ones. Dollars are flooding in from out of state. Candidates, staff and volunteers are on the march. Party leaders are mustering the faithful and recruiting the undecideds. According to Jack Colwell of the South Bend Tribune, "Indiana has become the Florida or Ohio in this national election."

There are rumors of another presidential visit, and why not? The stakes are considerable. At the national level voters are worried about such issues as Iraq, terrorism, immigration and the economy. Put healthcare, state spending and education near the top of that list and you've also described Hoosier concerns going into the elections.

Candidates fighting for every ballot will look for all the help they can get. While Republicans have turned to the likes of the president, vice president and even Barbara Bush, many Democrats will seek the support of Sen. Bayh, one of the most popular politicians in the state. The junior senator has donated as much as $10,000 to several candidates as well as $25,000 to the state party, but it's his popularity with Hoosier voters that may prove to be his greatest asset in this election. A SurveyUSA poll conducted in early August found Bayh's fav/unfav rating at 57/36. The breakdown indicated he is especially popular with Democrats (71/26), independents (55/36), moderates (70/25) and liberals (58/35).

"He is in fact a popular figure," said Russell Hanson, a professor of political science at Indiana University in Bloomington. "In fact the 8th and 9th districts are close to his old home base in politics. He has connections. He has political appeal that if he was there in person, campaigning with that person, it would be to the advantage of a candidate, I should think."

Hanson pointed out that so far many Hoosiers haven't heard much from Bayh in terms of appearances or fundraising.

"From where I sit, which is in the 9th district, he's not been seen or heard in a way that would benefit the candidate," the professor said. "Maybe he's holding that back for later in the campaign. It is still fairly early for the campaign. It may be just a matter of timing, but we certainly have seen any number of high-level national figures come to Indiana to work with candidates here, and I have not seen Evan Bayh at any rate."

That's about to change. According to a first-hand account, Sen. Bayh told a group of New York Democrats earlier this week that he has set aside the month of October "to getting the Dem congressional candidates elected in Indiana...." (Dansac, Daily Kos). The senator's office isn't releasing any details but confirmed he plans to campaign for Indiana candidates in the state as election day approaches.

"He's offered to campaign with us and I expect that will be happening in the coming weeks," said Matt Weisman, a spokesman for Democrat Brad Ellsworth, who's hoping to unseat John Hostettler in the 8th CD. "We look forward to taking him up on that offer."

According to a WISH-TV poll released Sept. 19th, Ellsworth has a 44-40 margin over the incumbent. "This is the closest congressional race in the state," said reporter Jim Shella.

Weisman assured HPR that Bayh has long been supportive of his candidate.

"Evan Bayh has been very helpful financially both in terms of donating money and helping us raise money," he said. The senator's leadership PAC, All America PAC, has contributed $10,000. And the senator is not the only Bayh to support Ellsworth, Weisman said. Evan's father, the former Sen. Birch Bayh, "has been tremendously helpful. He's also offered to come and campaign with us and we look forward to taking him up on that offer as well."

The younger Bayh also supported Joe Donnelly's effort to unseat Chris Chocola in the 2nd CD with a $10,000 donation. As noted in yesterday's HPR Daily Wire, a South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV poll taken over the weekend has Donnelly leading among likely voters 50-42.

"Sen. Bayh has been a tremendous help to us in the district," said Katie Nee, the Democrat's campaign manager. "We have worked out some events in the future but I don't know if they are in stone. They are not part of our public schedule yet. Bayh has offered to do quite a bit for our campaign and really a lot of things to support and elect Joe Donnelly." Bayh will deliver a Jefferson-Jackson Dinner speech Nov. 2 in South Bend.

He has also supplied paid staffing to four congressional races and a state contest through his Camp Bayh staffer program at a salary of $1,000 a month for three months. The senator trained and then placed workers in the 2nd, 3rd, 8th and 9th CDs as well as in the contest for Indiana's District 31 House seat. Lucas John Burkett of South Bend is working for Donnelly.

"He's been a great help to us," Nee said. "He's a field staffer. He does a lot of voter contact and reaching out to voters in our district."

Conversations with Bayh's office suggest similar plans are in the works for other hotly contested races, although this writer was unable to reach Baron Hill's 9th CD campaign or the Indiana Democratic Party for comment. (Hill is in a close battle with Rep. Mike Sodrel - a WISH-TV poll released Sept. 12th put the challenger ahead 46-40.)

"We'll send out scheduling information once the details are finalized closer to time," Meghan Keck, Bayh's press secretary, told HPR. "It's going to be exciting."

Yes, Indiana, it is going to be exciting. There's still time before persuadable voters begin to move out of the undecided column, but not much.

"People begin to make up their minds and then at some point in the campaign it will shift to simply a turn-out strategy," Hanson, the IU professor, said. "The interesting thing about the 8th and 9th district is that polls suggest there are a lot of people - on the order of 15 to 20 percent or more - who haven't made up their mind yet. You've got to come in early enough to shape that initial choice to be really successful in the end."

Bayh also has irons in the fire in key places like Iowa. This weekend he will be helping campaigns in New Hampshire, where he will speak at the Manchester City Democrats' "Countdown to Victory Dinner" and visit Rochester, Nashua and Salem. But observers within and far beyond the state's borders will be paying close attention to the caliber and impact of his efforts to help Indiana Democrats.

Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, or the Kos of dailykos.com, recently wrote, "One reason I am blissfully unwilling to pick sides in the presidential race is that I want the candidates to prove that they can help build their local Democratic Parties and deliver Democratic victories beyond their own."

Winning Red State votes may be key to winning elections, but winning the support of outspoken Democrats like the Kos will enable Evan Bayh to gain traction toward a run at his party's presidential nomination in 2008. The results of this year's midterms in Indiana will provide more clues about his chances in that endeavor.

Bayh asserts security credentials

2006-09-14T07:38:00.000-04:00

Bayh asserts security credentials

For Howey Political Report Sept. 14, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Evan Bayh has been working overtime to assert his national security credentials. In the week since the end of the Senate's summer recess he has made repeated calls for Congress and the president to make changes in the prosecution of the war on terror.

On Monday, five years after the national tragedy of Sept. 11, 2001, President Bush told the American people that the war against terrorists "is the decisive ideological struggle of the 21st century, and the calling of our generation."

The safety of America, he said, "depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad."

According to Sen. Bayh, the administration's policies - and the president's leadership - are insufficient to meet these challenges. In the past seven days he has:

• Criticized Senate leadership for their inability to pass an intelligence authorization bill for the second year in a row;

• Blasted Congress for failing to implement all of the 9-11 Commission's recommendations;

• Lamented "the bureaucratic and dysfunctional nature of Washington" in announcing he had successfully inserted an amendment into defense appropriations legislation to fully fund a previously ignored and then delayed U.S. Special Operations Command request for Predator unmanned aerial vehicles;

• Joined with Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) to request at least one hearing on the state of U.S. human intelligence collections on Iran before the end of the month in light of "the intelligence failures in Iraq."

On the day after the events of 9-11, Sen. Bayh issued a statement resolving "to make those who have perpetrated this terrible act pay for their crimes." Like nearly all Americans, he abandoned politics and partisanship to support the president in developing an appropriate response to the terrorist attacks.

"There's a strong bipartisan atmosphere here in Washington the likes of which I have not seen before," he said after President Bush's speech of Sept. 20, 2001. "It is unfortunate that it took tragedy to bring it about, but today, there are no Democrats or Republicans in Washington, only Americans. We are going to work with our President to make sure that we protect our country, punish those who committed this crime, and do whatever it takes to make sure this never happens again."

Yet partisanship was clearly back in vogue as early as July 2002, when Bayh presided as chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council that rapped "a confused and compromised Bush administration and a hapless, interest-group-driven GOP."

An article in the July 29, 2002, issue of the DLC magazine, The Blueprint, stated "The administration's one great success in the fight against terrorism, the military campaign against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan, is beginning to look like an exception to a general rule of uncertainty and drift."

Bayh's unease with the administration's policies did not prevent him from supporting the invasion of Iraq in a resolution tendered a few months later. He joined 76 other senators, including most Democrats, in voting to authorize the attack. News reports of the time indicate Bayh teamed with Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) in "leading a bipartisan effort to give the president the authorization he has asked for." (Kwame Holman, PBS News Hour)

"I am pleased to join with my colleagues today on a bipartisan basis to authorize the President of the United States to use appropriate force to defend the national security interests of our country," Bayh said in a speech offered Oct. 2, 2002, when Resolution 46 was submitted (Iraq Watch). "I join in this effort with a sense of regret that events have come to this. No one can contemplate the use of military force with much satisfaction, but I also approach this debate with the firm conviction that the time has come to unite, to take those steps that are necessary to protect our country, including the use of force, because all other avenues have been exhausted and seem unlikely to lead to the result of protecting the American people."

By May 2004 Bayh was clearly dissatisfied with the administration's "conduct of our Iraqi policy." During an appearance by Donald Rumsfeld before the Armed Services Committee prompted in part by the Iraqi prison scandal, Bayh asked the secretary of defense point-blank:

"Would it serve to demonstrate how seriously we take this situation, and therefore help to undo some of the damage to our reputation, if you were to step down?" Bayh asked Rumsfeld.

"That's possible," Rumsfeld said.

At the time Indiana's former governor said he didn't really expect Rumsfeld to quit. "[T]here are broader questions here about the conduct of our Iraqi policy," he said on an appearance with Fox News Sunday, "and that all goes to the Oval Office. So, I don't think Donald Rumsfeld ought to be made a scapegoat for that."

In August 2004 the president told the New York Times he had made "a miscalculation of what the conditions would be" in post-war Iraq. By September the death toll of U.S. soldiers topped 1,000. In October, Paul Bremer, who had been Bush's civilian administrator in Iraq, said the U.S. "paid a big price" for not having enough troops on the ground after overthrowing Saddam (CNN). Also that month, a CIA report concluded "Hussein did not possess stockpiles of illicit weapons at the time of the U.S. invasion in March 2003 and had not begun any program to produce them," CNN reported.

By December, apparently, the junior senator had had enough. During a lengthy appearance on CNN's Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer, Sen. Bayh called on the secretary to resign. Here is an excerpt from the show's transcript:

BAYH: ...And when you see [then White House Chief of Staff] Andy Card say, "Hey, everything has been great, there have been no mistakes, we don't have to correct anything," you have to wonder what's going on. Look, it's better that wisdom come late than not at all. And we have to learn from these mistakes so that we do better to minimize the number of casualties to win this thing so that we can ultimately come home.

And it's the lack of any introspection that I find to be very troubling.

BLITZER: But I want to just press you on this point. You're a moderate Democrat, well-known.

Do you think he should resign?

BAYH: Well, reluctantly, Wolf, I've concluded that we have to have a different perspective. The commander in chief will be in place for the next four years, so that doesn't leave us many alternatives.

BLITZER: So you want Rumsfeld out?

BAYH: Well, I think that that is the way to go.

But if we don't have different policies, frankly, it will just be a game of musical chairs. What is important here is that we have better policies so that we can be successful in these things.

By February 2006, Evan Bayh was ready to recant his vote on the resolution supporting the invasion of Iraq (see HPR, April 13). After stating he would have made a different decision based on the facts now known, Bayh added, "...it is legitimate to ask what people have learned, how we would do things different, those kinds of things," Bayh told the Washington Post. "We've got to stop just obsessing on decisions that were made several years ago, and instead focus on where we are, and most importantly, where we're going, and how most effectively to resolve this in a way that is in the national security interest of the United States. That really is the main issue."

Bayh had already assailed Iran as "a grave and growing danger" to U.S. security interests and introduced a resolution calling for economic and cultural sanctions. He did not shy from continuing to push his party to adopt a national security policy that he described as "tough and smart."

"If people don't trust us with our lives, they're unlikely to trust us with anything else," Bayh often told Democrats during his travels through 22 states in the past year. He also slammed Republicans for being "a lot better at national security politics than national security policy."

President Bush and Karl Rove "have undermined our security," Bayh said during a speech two months ago. "Iraq is the foremost example. They have turned it into a tragic, tragic, mess. Democrats can do better."

On Aug. 9, Evan Bayh, once considered among the staunchest Democratic supporters for the war, told an audience at Indiana University South Bend that he supported a flexible timeline for withdrawal from Iraq, according to South Bend Tribune political writer James Wensits.

Bayh said "There's got to be a timeline for progress" that can be flexible "but you have to have a timeline or there's no end to it," Wentsits wrote, also noting the senator suggested the convening of a summit similar to that held in Dayton, Ohio, when the Balkans were breaking up.

Last week Bayh invited reporters to join him in a conference call to discuss the failure by Congress to implement all of the 9-11 Commission's recommendations.

"It is still a dangerous world," he said. "The plot to blow up airliners and kill thousands of people this summer reminds us that there [are] still people who plan to attack our country and kill Americans. We can't let that happen. Not enough is being done to prevent that. The bipartisan commission that studied the causes that led to the 9-11 attack made 41 recommendations. There was a review just recently about how we had done in implementing those recommendations. The report concluded four "F"s, nine "D"s and no "A"s. That's not acceptable. We have to do better."

Several Indiana news outlets have covered Bayh's latest statements. The national media have yet to notice, however. Type "evan bayh" and "national security" into the Google News search engine and the results number about 90 hits for the last month: type in Hillary Clinton and the number is 390; for John Kerry, it's 940.

Sen. Bayh will have an opportunity to improve those numbers over the next few days. Tomorrow he headlines the Iowa United Auto Workers political convention (Indianapolis Star). On Monday he will be in New York to host a fundraiser for Gov. John Lynch (D-N.H.) and gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver (D-Iowa). Former Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke will offer a briefing on foreign policy, according to Bayh's press secretary Meghan Keck. And, in his fifth visit to the Granite State since the 2004 presidential election, Bayh is to be the special guest at the Manchester, N.H., City Democrats' "Countdown to Victory Dinner" on Sept. 24 (politicsnh.com)

The effort by both parties to shape the message on national security before mid-term elections presents an opportunity for Evan Bayh. Actually, it presents a double opportunity: He has the occasion to further assert his credentials in the area of defense while at the same time demonstrating the leadership critics say he lacks - the sort that inspires as much as it impresses. Should Bayh assume such a challenge and succeed, maybe then his ideas will receive the favorable attention the senator will need if he ever hopes to secure a spot on the ballot in the 2008 presidential election.

Bayh to focus on national security before midterms

2006-09-07T22:20:00.000-04:00

Bayh to focus on national security before midterms

For Howey Political Report Sept. 7, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Evan Bayh will focus on national security legislation between now and when the Senate adjourns for the fall elections, press officer Meghan Keck told HPR yesterday evening in an email.

Earlier in the day Bayh, who serves on the Senate's Select Committee on Intelligence, released a statement expressing "disappointment with the Senate Leadership’s failure to pass an intelligence authorization bill during this Congress."

"This Congress is failing in one of its most basic responsibilities," Sen. Bayh stated, according to the press release. "Our nation needs the best intelligence to win the war on terror and to deal with major threats such as Iran, North Korea and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Failure to pass an intelligence authorization for the second year in a row – after doing so every year since 1978 – is irresponsible and a danger to the nation’s security."

Meanwhile, the president has launched a series of speeches to regain the upper hand in support for his policies on Iraq and terror.

"We can allow the Middle East to continue on the course it was headed before 9/11 – and a generation from now, our children will face a region dominated by terrorist states and radical dictators armed with nuclear weapons," the White House stated in a fact sheet. "Or we can rally the world to confront the ideology of hate and give the people of the Middle East a future of hope. That is the choice America has made."

Republicans hope the focus on national security will bolster the party's flagging prospects for November's midterms.

As noted often on these pages, Bayh has worked to build a reputation for being "tough and smart" on security matters. Indiana's former governor has urged his party to take a firm stance on defense and has challenged Republicans on their record in Iraq and on terror. Bayh must respond to the administration's attempt to shape the message on national security if he is to continue to claim leadership on this key issue.

The contenders

The 2008 presidential election is shaping up to be a raucous affair. Politics and partisanship have boxed lawmakers into corners far from any common ground. Americans are troubled by the long and difficult war. There's talk of a declining middle class. Federal spending is off the charts. The nation struggles under a tidal wave of new immigrants. Energy threatens security.

Our next president will be expected to work miracles, but is there a miracle worker available?

Evan Bayh must somehow distinguish himself in a burgeoning Democratic field. The senator's challengers include some of the greatest political success stories of the past two decades, an unusually lengthy list of contenders inspired in part by the fact that for the first time in 80 years neither the sitting president nor vice president will be a candidate.

Hillary Clinton

The junior senator from New York, facing re-election this year, leads every other candidate - Democrat or Republican - in fundraising with $22 million cash on hand. The wife of former President Bill Clinton may be a sometimes controversial public figure, but she is widely known and has established a broad base of support. However, as John Hood wrote in National Review, she faces an uphill battle inside her own party.

"There are good reasons why smart Democrats don’t want Clinton to bear their standard," Hood stated, noting political professionals "don’t like the prospect of running a candidate about whom very few voters have not already made up their minds."

John Edwards

"His status as the leading non-Clinton candidate is secure," according to Chuck Todd of the National Journal. "He has a tailor-made DNC primary calendar."

The one-term former senator from North Carolina made a name for himself as the party's vice president candidate in 2004. In the past two years he has spent more time in Iowa than any other Democrat. The investment paid off in a June poll conducted by the Des Moines Register which indicated Edwards leads the Democratic Iowa caucus. The former trial lawyer's prospects were further improved by the party's recent decision to schedule the South Carolina primary in the week following New Hampshire.

Mark Warner

In the past several months the former governor of Virginia has reportedly added $8 million to his campaign war chest. Warner, who was born in Indianapolis, was one of the early investors in Nextel, which last year sold to Sprint for $35 billion. A moderate, he enjoyed considerable success in the commonwealth and was named one of the five best governors by Time magazine in 2005.

In May, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post wrote, "Proving his foreign policy bona fides is a critical hurdle for Warner," and he has been working to establish national security credentials. The Associated Press reported on a news conference in Las Vegas yesterday when Warner said 'the Bush administration's 'unilateral focus on Iraq' had diverted attention and resources from homeland security efforts."

Al Gore

"We won't rehash the arguments for and against a Gore candidacy," Cillizza wrote in June, "suffice to say that if he gets in, Gore would have to be considered the co-favorite for the nomination along with Clinton. And what an epic clash it would be."

John Kerry

With $13 million left over from his 2004 run at the presidency, the Massachusetts senator possesses the second-largest campaign fund among Democrats (Bayh is third at $10 million). "Kerry unmistakably wants to run again, though virtually all party activists with whom we have talked show almost no enthusiasm for a second Kerry bid," Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, wrote last year.

Barack Obama

"Obama is the Giuliani of the Democratic field," The National Journal's Todd wrote last week, "a candidate who probably won't run but can't be dismissed." However, the Post's Cillizza warned in July that "There is also a sense in Democratic circles that Obama is simply not ready to assume the role of spokesman for his party. They argue that Obama's considerable rhetorical skills belie a somewhat wet-behind-the-ears politician who is still trying to deal with his rapid rise to political fame."

The Others

Among the long list of Democrats said to be pondering a run at the White House in 2008: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, New Mexcio Gov. Bill Richardson, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd, Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold and retired general Wesley Clark.

GOP focus on national security could help Bayh

2006-08-31T14:19:00.000-04:00

GOP focus on national security could help Bayh

For Howey Political Report Aug. 31, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

He may be on vacation through the end of this week, but the coming days will be crucial if Evan Bayh intends to convince voters he can be "tough and smart" on national security issues.

Less than two weeks before the fifth anniversary of 9/11, President Bush will address the American Legion today in an effort to strengthen support for the Iraq war amid calls from some Democrats and even some Republicans for a timetable to withdraw.

"While most eyes have been focused on the still-recovering Gulf Coast during the first half of this week, the Bush Administration has been dispatching some of its biggest names in national security to test September 11 anniversary messages," according to an item in yesterday's MSNBC political blog, First Read.

The barrage began on Tuesday when Vice President Cheney told a Republican audience in Nebraska some Democratic leaders want to weaken the tools the administration uses to identify and track terrorists while others would "give up the fight (and) retreat" from Iraq, according to the Lincoln Journal-Star. Cheney called on voters in this year's national congressional elections to "reject resignation and defeatism."

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was more blunt when he said the war's critics "seem not to have learned history's lessons" and suggested some are attempting to appease "a new type of fascism." "Can we truly afford to believe that somehow, some way, vicious extremists can be appeased?" he said (Associated Press). Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice offered a speech at the American Legion convention warning of severe consequences if the U.S. leaves Iraq before the mission is finished.

Tracey Schmitt, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, told AP's Devlin Barrett the Democratic candidates' strategy is to criticize Republican efforts to win the war on terror, while elected Democrats are "committed to a strategy that will weaken our ability to defend America and make us less safe at home and abroad."

Democrats expressed outrage at such comments. "All we get is rhetoric and no solutions," Don Fowler, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said in a conference call with reporters (Army Times).

Such talk points to a difficult and potentially divisive run-up to the November mid-terms, but it also creates problems for many politicians from both parties considered potential candidates for the White House in 2008, especially a moderate like Evan Bayh.

Bayh supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq. A steadfast supporter of Israel and author of a resolution calling for sanctions on Iran, Indiana's former governor is considered one of the most hawkish Democrats in the U.S. Senate. In the past year he has spearheaded a party effort to assure Americans that Democrats will protect the national interests, often noting in speeches "if they don't trust us with their lives, they're not going to trust us with anything else."

While he has been quick to criticize the administration's handling of the war, calling for Rumsfeld's resignation in December of 2004, he also slams Democrats for failing to convincingly confront the issue of national security.

"Too often, members of our party...try and change the subject when the subject of national security comes up," Bayh said at a May news conference where he endorsed a progressive strategy for defeating jihadism. "They kind of - there's almost a - almost a perceptible cringe in some ways. They know we have some ground to make up, but we can't do that. Neither events nor the other party will allow that."

"[W]e need parties and leaders who are prepared and capable of dealing with it, not a world as we wish it is - as we wish it was, even though we work toward that objective - but a world as it is that regrettably has evil people in it who wish us ill, and we have to be prepared to do - to deal with that."

Bayh endorses a plan put forth by the Progressive Policy Institute in a book entitled "With All Our Might." The institute is a Washington, D.C., based research group that believes "America is ill-served by an obsolete left-right debate that is out of step with the powerful forces re-shaping our society and economy."

Editor Will Marshall and contributor Jeremy Rosner explain, "Progressive internationalism stresses the responsibilities that come with our enormous power: to use force with restraint but not to hesitate to use it when necessary; to show what the Declaration of Independence called 'a decent respect for the opinions of mankind'; to exercise leadership primarily through persuasion rather than coercion; to reduce human suffering where we can, and to bolster alliances and global institutions committed to upholding an increasingly democratic world order."

Over more than 200 pages, the authors lay out the details of a five-part plan "to combat the sources and consequences of jihadist terrorism":

• "marshal all of America's manifold strengths, starting with our military power but going well beyond it"
• "rebuild America's alliances"
• "champion liberal democracy in deed"
• "renew U.S. leadership in the international economy and rise to the challenge of global competition"
• "summon from the American people a new spirit of national unity and shared sacrifice"

Bayh briefly described his own strategy for defeating the terror threat during the May news conference to promote the book's release.

"[M]y strategy...is a strategy of greater proaction...to meet this threat; not sitting back in a defensive crouch and waiting for them to come and attack us, but instead, reaching out to embrace our allies and to try and increase our intelligence capability so that we can better identify who is out to harm us and how they intend to go about that, so we can strike them before it's too late. Working with other countries to dry up the financial sources of terrorist funding is vitally important these days. Having the military capability to fight the insurgents, to dry up the failed states, the collapsed places around the world where terrorists can foment their attacks, having those kinds of forces rather than the forces configured to fight a land war on the Northern European plain, which we still spend too much of our resources on to this day."

Time and again Bayh also has said the nation's ultimate security depends on strengthening the country's financial position and ending our dependence on foreign oil.

Staking out these positions has left Bayh vulnerable to attacks from the anti-war wing of the Democratic Party recently responsible for the primary defeat of Sen. Joe Lieberman. Unlike the Connecticut Democrat, Evan Bayh has recanted his support of the invasion.

"I did what I thought was right at the time based on the facts as I understood them at the time," Bayh told the Washington Post Insider in February of this year (see HPR, April 13). "It turned out some of those facts weren't accurate, so of course you'd make different decisions."

By focusing voter attention on the war and national security, the Bush Administration's current public relations blitz creates both opportunity and challenge for the junior senator from Indiana. Democrats must respond to Republican efforts to shape the message on national security. Bayh's success or failure to claim a stake in the fight will indicate the viability of his attempt to win election to the highest office in the land.

Bayh among Democrats who fault Wal-Mart's anti-labor policies

2006-08-24T11:00:00.000-04:00

Bayh among Democrats who fault Wal-Mart's anti-labor policies

For Howey Political Report Aug. 24, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Indiana's Evan Bayh stirred up controversy last week in Iowa when he jumped on the Democratic Party's anti-Wal-Mart bandwagon, proclaiming at a press conference that the big-box store "has become emblematic of the anxiety around the country, and the middle-class squeeze."

"We're not here today because we want to shut Wal-Mart down," Bayh said. "We're here today because we want them to treat their employees with dignity and respect. We are not anti-business, we are pro-Middle Class."

He appeared at the Aug. 15 media event in Cedar Rapids on behalf of a "Change Wal-Mart, Change America Tour." Organizers for sponsor Wakeup Wal-Mart said the event was part of "an exciting and unprecedented national bus tour going to 19 states, 35 cities in 35 days."

Several other Democrats considered among likely 2008 presidential candidates made news last week by criticizing the retail giant that is America's single largest private employer: Joe Biden, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack and John Edwards.

"We just came from a great press conference in Cedar Rapids with Senator Evan Bayh, who spoke eloquently about standing up for working and middle class Americans," according to a blog entry on the Wakeup Wal-Mart website. "He talked about how Wal-Mart can be 'both successful and respected' if they do the right thing."

The "About Us" page on the group's web site notes "We are 256,558 Americans and growing. We are grassroots leaders, community groups and activists who have woken up to the high costs of Wal-Mart and recognize Wal-Mart’s negative impact on our jobs, our wages, our health care and our communities."

The blog at Bayh's All America PAC website summed up the chief complaints:

"Wal-Mart as you may know, is notorious for not only paying low wages to its employees but is also well-known for its anti-union tactics as well as encouraging employees to sign up for public assistance programs such as Medicaid and food stamps rather than providing better benefits. In fact, in Alabama and other states, Wal-Mart employees are the #1 recipient of state health insurance."

The attacks were featured prominently by media outlets across the country including CNN, Associated Press, Los Angeles Times, BBC, Indianapolis Star and more.

"The focus on Wal-Mart is part of a broader strategy of addressing what Democrats say is general economic anxiety and a growing sense that economic gains of recent years have not benefited the middle class or the working poor," read a report in the Aug. 17 New York Times. The article noted that "what is striking about this campaign is the ideological breadth of the Democrats who have joined in, including some who in the past have warned the party against appearing hostile to business interests."

Wal-Mart and its defenders struck back with a public relations barrage that blamed politics and unions for the attacks.

"The paid critics and the politicians who join them at these publicity stops are attacking the wrong company and should stop telling working families where to shop and work," Wal-Mart vice president of corporate communications, Bob McAdam, stated in a news release dated Aug. 15. "We're disappointed that these politicians are speaking out without paying attention to the facts and will be sure to inform our associates across Iowa and in other key states that these candidates are not telling the truth about Wal-Mart."

The press release noted the company mailed a letter to its 18,000 employees in Iowa to make them "aware of the misguided attacks aimed at scoring special-interest political points by playing politics with our company."

"We would never suggest to you how to vote, but we have an obligation to tell you when politicians are saying something about your company that isn’t true," the letter read in part. "After all, you are Wal-Mart. We know you take pride in your company and the work you do every day to generate the economic opportunities that so many working families in this country need right now."

A few days later the company announced it was sending similar letters to 27,000 employees in South Carolina, which, like Iowa, is considered a key state in the Democratic presidential candidate vetting process. According to an article in The State, Wal-Mart said the campaign is a union-funded attack that seeks to distort the good the company does.

"It’s really about politics," said Dan Fogleman, a senior public relations manager for Wal-Mart told the newspaper. "They are attacking the wrong company."

In a letter addressed to Bayh that was made available to the press, the company wrote that it saves the average American household more than $2,300 per year.

"We believe strongly that our company is a positive force for the working men and women of this country," the letter read.

Several opinion writers voiced support for the Wal-Mart cause, including the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times, which stated "Most Americans do not want their politicians ganging up on one company. Wal-Mart may be a behemoth that employs 1.3 million people in this country and earned $11 billion in profit last year, but it still looks like bullying when politicians single out one business to scapegoat for larger societal ills."

Bloomberg News columnist Caroline Baum cited Wal-Mart statistics supporting the company's assertion that the critics are wrong.

"The bottom line is that Wal-Mart isn't holding a gun to anyone's head, forcing him or her to work under onerous terms," Baum wrote. "Employment at Wal-Mart is voluntary. In January, 25,000 people applied for 325 available jobs at a store opening in the Chicago area, according to the company. Not everyone thinks it's such a bad place to work."

Another widely published article was written by Ann McFeatters, the Scripps Howard columnist who has covered the White House and national politics since 1986.

"Biden, Bayh, Richardson and Vilsack need to get off the bus and do the math," she wrote. "If 127 million people each week feel Wal-Mart makes their life better, how many of them will run to the polls to support a candidate who shakes his fist at their beloved Supercenter?"

The controversy was further fueled this week by the writings of Georgia businessman Herman Cain when he labeled Wal-Mart's critics "Hezbocrats." The former president of Godfather's Pizza is a member of the steering committee for Working Families for Wal-Mart which supports the retailer's fight against the unions.

"The Hezbocrats, armed with nothing more than Katyusha-grade class warfare rhetoric, descended upon Iowa earlier this month determined to take down Wal-Mart, a company they consider the nation’s largest capitalistic oppressor of the proletariat," Cain wrote in an 800-word article published Tuesday on townhall.com.

Yesterday, Wake Up Wal-Mart issued a news release with the headline "WakeUpWalMart.com Calls On Wal-Mart to Renounce Latest Attacks Describing Democrats As Hezbollah Terrorists," and this morning's Atlanta Journal-Constitution quoted a Wake Up Wal-Mart spokesman who said Cain's statements were "some of the most outrageous and disgusting comments ever to be used to describe patriotic Democrats. Wal-Mart should apologize considering he made these comments on their behalf."

The Atlanta newspaper also reported John Kerry accused Cain of "'swiftboating' people who ask tough questions of big business."

"Make no mistake, those who push and prod Wal-Mart to be a decent corporate citizen are standing up for the American worker," Kerry told the newspaper. "Decent wages and affordable health care aren't too much to ask for from the largest employer in the United States."

As noted in the article, former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young resigned last week from the pro-Wal-Mart organization after he made controversial remarks about Jewish, Korean and Arab business owners.

Where's the buzz? 100 days until Bayh's big announcement

2006-08-17T23:05:00.000-04:00

Where's the buzz?
100 days until Bayh's big announcement

For Howey Political Report Aug. 17, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

For the past year or so Evan Bayh has bounced non-stop around the country like a senatorial version of the Energizer Bunny.

He's visited 24 states at least once and some, like New Hampshire, several times. Earlier this week Indiana's former governor made his fifth appearance in Iowa for 2006, this time to tout his renewable energy plan among state fair goers, attend a series of fundraisers and appear at a "Wake Up Wal-Mart" press conference in Cedar Rapids.

Afterward he was slated to begin a much overdue two-week vacation with Susan and the twins. Hope he has plenty of time to rest and recharge: Only about 100 days remain before Thanksgiving when the senator is expected to announce he will indeed make a run for the White House in 2008.

So far Bayh and his supporters have spent millions of dollars and dedicated thousands of hours to develop a presidential-grade campaign organization. As previously noted on these pages, several respected analysts have been impressed with the resulting infrastructure. But some, like Chuck Todd of National Journal, hedge their praise with questions about the Bayh persona.

"...Bayh has to find a base-rousing issue that he can call his own," Todd wrote in an article ranking the 2008 Democratic contenders. Bayh was listed as fourth, behind Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Mark Warner. "Maybe it'll come from his union friends, or show up as a radical (but practical) health insurance proposal. Will it be enough to differentiate him from the top three?"

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post political blog, The Fix, is among Bayh's most influential supporters in the media. He repeatedly ranks the senator among the five Democrats most likely to win the party's presidential nomination. In a recent article the pundit noted the value of the senator's organizational strength in Iowa, but concluded with this paragraph:

"Bayh's biggest hurdle is his perceived charisma deficit. In his speech yesterday Bayh was competent and engaging but not inspiring or overwhelming. His advisers say - and we agree - that he has made progress in his speaking and stump skills, but much work remains to be done. The question is whether Bayh's low-key charisma will hurt his ability to generate a spark in Iowa."

Well-paid reporters aren't the only ones to wonder if and when a Bayh campaign will be able to create that spark, a buzz, some sort of sizzle that will positively sear his name in the voter consciousness. Naysayers at either fringe eagerly cite lack of such as evidence when proclaiming Bayh's centrist brand will fail. Even some friends are worried - just two weeks ago this writer sat down with an outright Bayh fanatic at an ice cream shop south of Indy who asked much the same question.

But these things must be handled delicately. It's all a matter of timing: The next Iowa presidential caucuses are 15 months out. Peak too soon in today's broadband world and you're a has-been by the end of the week. Too late and you're a never-was. Bayh's competitors are a smart bunch with a variety of assets. Hillary is popular, Edwards portrays charm, John Kerry has name recognition, even Warner emits a neophyte appeal. Bayh faces the seemingly indomitable task of piercing through the media clutter inspired by current events and the rest of the field. His campaign must effectively deliver an incisive message to convince a good number of persuadable moderates that this Hoosier is the real deal.

Supporters may find comfort in the innovative organizational plan implemented last week with Bayh's send-off of 50 paid and trained staffers to the key states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Indiana. And, the senator has demonstrated he knows how to stay on message. He repeatedly touts the substance of a successful public career - a former red-state governor, author of a viable energy proposal, smart and tough on security, possesses labor and education credentials, and so on. Again and again, in speech after speech, the senator pounds home these achievements. Any one or combination of events, aided by dumb luck or abetted by extensive foresight and hard work, could create the right setting for Bayh's grand entrance into - or exit from - the country's political psyche.

Evan Bayh was born to politics. He has a significant record as governor and senator. He demonstrates a winning work ethic. He's assembled a staff considered by many to be among the best. He's in the top tier in fundraising. He has a following, and it's growing. Everything is in place for a hard charge at the tape, but sooner or later Bayh must seize our attention, if only for a moment to demonstrate he possesses the ability to inspire and motivate and lead the nation through the good and bad that lay ahead. If he doesn't another candidate certainly will and Bayh's moment will be gone, possibly forever.

Is Bayh the Anti-Hillary? Evan Bayh now considered a serious contender

2006-07-13T15:02:00.000-04:00

Is Bayh the Anti-Hillary? Evan Bayh now considered a serious contender

For Howey Political Report July 13, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

For the fifth time in modern history a Hoosier is contemplating a run at the White House but this campaign just might be different: Evan Bayh could win his party's nomination.

True, Indiana's former governor is considered a long shot but so were Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in 1974 and 1990. And, unlike the Hoosiers who went before, Bayh is deep into the game two-and-a-half years out. While his campaign does face daunting obstacles, the junior senator is well-positioned to mount a viable challenge to any seeking the Democratic nomination for the president in 2008.

"He's a credible U.S. senator, leader in his party, got a message, spending time on task, getting a good early start - those are all signs of candidacies that do well," Iowa pundit David Yepsen told HPR. Asked to compare Bayh's chances with that of another Hoosier senator who ran for the GOP nomination in 1996, the political columnist for the Des Moines Register said, "[Richard] Lugar got into this thing late, as I recall. That's far different than Sen. Bayh who has gotten in here very early."

Bayh is "spending time here, he's a Middle Westerner, and those are important assets that will help him connect with the political culture here," Yepsen said.

"He's not in the top tier now but many people who've done well in caucuses did not start out this far out. In the top tier right now it's Edwards, Hillary, Kerry and Vilsack."

Yepsen's comments will surely bring comfort to the Bayh camp. He may not be a kingmaker, but the columnist is widely read and respected in Iowa and beyond. During Lugar's 1996 run, HPR Publisher Brian Howey saw first hand what can happen when a candidate fails to make a good impression.

"It was the only time I've seen Sen. Lugar angry," Howey said. "I met up with Sen. Lugar in Muscatine and the senator was holding a copy of the Register, furious that this columnist, Yepsen, had said he didn't have a chance in Iowa or at the nomination."

Lugar failed to gain the traction necessary to become a contender. He garnered only four percent of the vote in Iowa and five percent in New Hampshire. Still he fared better than did Indiana's Sen. Vance Hartke (1972) and Vice President Dan Quayle (2000). The only other Hoosier to actually be considered to have any kind of shot at his party's nomination in modern times is none other than Birch Bayh, father of Evan. The elder Bayh finished second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire during the 1976 contests but eventually lost to the former governor of Georgia who became the nation's 39th president.

Jimmy Carter was the first politician to fully exploit the current election winnowing process that begins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Subsequent contenders have emulated his strategy. Bayh has made five visits to Iowa in the last 12 months, second only to former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 10. Every nominee from both parties since 1976 has finished third or better in Iowa's caucuses.

If Evan Bayh is to best his father's performance he will have to overcome several obstacles. HPR asked Yepsen to describe the senator's weaknesses.

"He's flat," the columnist said. "That's the flip side of being a Midwesterner. There's not much fizz there. I think people looking at a president want to see a little more charisma than what he is showing.

"His second problem is a more serious one and that is that he's a centrist on defense and intelligence questions, and the caucus process is dominated by people who are pretty left of center. He may have some trouble with some party liberals.

Politicians who court the center face the near impossible task of appealing to a group that by definition represents a multitude of views concerning any number of issues (see HPR, May 18). But Yepsen said that doesn't necessarily make a Bayh victory impossible. Liberal voters will split their votes among other candidates, he said, adding "if you look at the history of the caucuses and who wins, it tends to be candidates more in the middle of their respective field. Carter had people on his left. Mondale had people on his left."

Bayh's deep and midwestern political roots should serve him well as he seeks to win over caucus goers. The political culture in Iowa is "virtually identical" to Indiana, Yepsen said. "If you look at the history of the caucuses you will see a midwest rural regional advantage to candidates."

Perhaps Bayh's greatest challenge is the New York politician considered by most to be the Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Clinton. The former First Lady has yet to step foot in the Hawkeye State as a candidate but placed second in a recent Register survey of probable voters (see HPR, June 29). As noted by CNN Political Editor Mark Preston, Hillary has been "steering clear of Iowa, focusing instead on her Senate re-election. But when she takes her first step into the state the media wave will be gigantic."

While visiting Iowa last weekend, Bayh was asked how he felt about competing with Hillary. His response was aired during a segment on CNN's "The Situation Room" Monday night.

"Is it a little bit of a David versus Goliath situation? Yes, it probably is, but as I recall, David did okay," he said. Later in the broadcast he was asked, "Do you think she is polarizing?" For a split second the polished politician paused to ponder a response.

"I like Hillary," he said with a nod of his head. "I don't [think she is polarizing], but, you know, that's up to the people to decide."

One way voters decide is with their pocketbooks, and, judging by her bank account, Hillary has won many converts. As of March 31, according to opensecrets.org, she had nearly $20 million cash on hand, leading all Democrats. Sen. John Kerry has nearly $13 million left over from his 2004 run at the presidency, followed by Bayh with an impressive $10 million. Bayh's fundraising success is a direct result of extraordinary effort - he has spent more time with donors than any other 2008 candidate (see HPR, April 20). The rest of the pack is far behind, but news accounts indicate former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, who raised almost $2 million in the first quarter of this year, may be gaining fast.

The senator has enlisted a superstar cast of staff and consultants to serve his cause. In March, ABC News published "Invisibile Primary Ratings," referring "to the jockeying for supremacy in the contests to be positioned to be the major party presidential nominees between now and [the] start of the actual caucus and primary voting." Bayh ranked sixth overall among Democratic contenders but placed second in the staff and consultants category (behind Clinton). "Party pros and fundraisers often see a big staff or consulting hire as a coup signifying that a candidate is legitimate," the ABC website stated. "And of course, in theory, the work and advice of top operatives should be able to help a candidate win both the Invisible Primary and real nomination fight."

Reporting on the ABC rating, Maureen Groppe of the Indianapolis Star listed seven of the senator's key aides. These included:

• Tom Sugar, chief of staff, who served as Gov. Bayh's director of policy and planning before running the 1998 senatorial campaign;

• Linda Moore Forbes, deputy chief of staff;

• Marc Farinella, executive director of Bayh's leadership PAC, All America PAC;

• Dan Pfeiffer, communications director;

• Paul Maslin, pollster; and,

• Anita Dunn, media adviser.

• Also listed was Nancy Jacobsen, formally chief fundraiser but recently named a senior advisor.

• Iowa native Kory Mitchell was hired June 21 to be the new finance director.

• All America PAC announced July 2 that Thurgood Marshall, Jr., former Cabinet Secretary under President Bill Clinton, had been named a senior advisor.

• Other senior advisors include Ron Klain and Richard Gordon.

• Another key player on the Bayh team is Chris Hayler, Regional Political Director who will be moving to Iowa soon, according to Bayh's press secretary Meghan Keck.

• The senator's PAC also funds the salary of Sean Downey, finance chairman for the New Hampshire Senate Democratic Caucus.

"It's a marathon and we're on the second or third mile," Bayh told Dane Smith of the Minneapolis Star Tribune last week. So far, the senator's recruitment efforts, long hours on the road and careful planning and strategizing have earned him the respect of many pundits and long-time followers of politics, ranging from former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich to Larry J. Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Bayh "has assembled the foundation of a presidential campaign that's impressed strategists and left him positioned to open the nominating season with what many see as a realistic chance," according to Mike Glover of the Associated Press.

"While many see enormous hurdles facing Bayh in his bid for the Democratic nomination, he has touched many of the right buttons, reflecting the grassroots orientation of a Democrat who has won statewide election five times in one of the most Republican states in the nation," Glover wrote in an article dated July 7.

Although he has yet to formally announce, a Bayh campaign for the presidency appears to be a foregone conclusion. During a question and answer session at Camp Bayh in South Bend last weekend, the senator said "he is still deciding whether to run," according to AP Reporter Tom Coyne. "He said whether he can raise enough money to be a viable candidate will be part of the decision, but not the primary factor. He said he likely will make a decision over Thanksgiving."

"This is a pretty profound decision and I just need some time to sit and reflect," Bayh said.

But can he win? It's simply too early to know about Iowa, according to the Register's Yepsen, who has covered the state's politics since the election of 1974. As the columnist notes, all Bayh "needs to do is finish in the top three which would give him a bit of lift into New Hampshire or whatever caucus contest comes after Iowa."

"I can't answer your question with a definitive answer because it is so far away and caucus goers are sort of professional undecideds until the last night," Yepsen said. "If we have these caucuses in early January of 2008, within the last couple weeks of the campaign you will see some wide swings.... you're talking about party activists here. These people follow politics and they understand it. They don't make commitments early. They want to see candidates in action. They want to watch them perform in various situations."

"The thing you gotta remember," he said, chuckling, "is any of us who have watched this game for a long time, you never get too predictive. I can remember being assigned to Jimmy Carter and we were dismissing him. Those that have been out here for a long time never get too dismissive of anybody's prospects."

Bayh plans 500-mile odyssey across Iowa next week

2006-06-29T09:15:00.000-04:00

Bayh plans 500-mile odyssey across Iowa next week

For Howey Political Report June 29, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Next Thursday Evan Bayh will launch a 500-mile odyssey to convince Democratic voters in Iowa that his centrist brand will best represent their party in the next presidential election.

It will be the senator's second trip to the Hawkeye State in seven weeks and his fifth in the past 12 months. More are expected in anticipation of the state's Democratic caucuses in January 2008.

Since Jimmy Carter's initial caucus victory in 1976, Iowa has been a key state in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to Wikipedia, which notes "[t]he national and international media give Iowa (and New Hampshire) about half of all the attention accorded the national candidate selection process, which gives [Iowa's] voters enormous leverage."

Poor showing can mean disaster

Of the past nine candidates to run for president under the Democratic banner, six were winners in Iowa, including incumbents Clinton (unopposed in 1996) and Carter (who defeated Ted Kennedy in 1980). Other than in 1992, when Iowa's own Tom Harkin won the state in a bid that was largely unchallenged, a poor showing in the caucuses has spelled disaster for aspiring campaigns. That same year Bill Clinton eventually secured his first nomination despite earning only three percent of the Iowa vote. In 1988, Michael Dukakis finished third with a respectable 22 percent and in 1972 George McGovern finished second with 23 percent.

If a recent poll conducted by the Des Moines Register is any indication, the senator has yet to connect with the state's voters. On June 11, the Register reported Bayh's supporters amounted to only two percent of Iowans who say they are likely to take part in the caucuses. John Edwards finished first at 30 percent, besting Hillary Clinton by four points. "None of these/other" notched three percent and "Not sure" received six percent (see HPR Daily Wire, June 12).

Edwards' showing created a stir because Hillary is often mentioned as the party's leading presidential contender. But pundits were otherwise hesitant to give much weight to a survey so far ahead of the election. However, one aspect of the poll may inspire Bayh to step up his appearances and work harder to deliver an evocative message - more than two-thirds (68 percent) of Iowa's probable Democratic voters indicated they were unsure about Bayh, the highest number of the nine potential candidates tested.

Connecting with voters

To succeed in Iowa, the senator will have to identify and understand what motivates the state's persuadable voters.

According to the Pew Research Center, "Democratic registered voters in Iowa and New Hampshire...are much less racially and ethnically diverse than the party as a whole, and may be slightly less conservative. But they are similar to Democrats nationally in terms of labor union affiliation, religion, age, and education."

Veteran Iowa political reporter Ed Tibbetts offered another perspective. "Ever since the 2004 presidential election, the 'values voter' has been much coveted," he wrote in a Quad-City Times article published prior to the state's June 6 primary. In the report on one of the most hotly contested congressional seats in the nation, Iowa's 1st CD, Tibbitt said he expects values voters to be critical in this year's midterms.

During his three day, eight-city tour next week, Sen. Bayh will have an opportunity to appeal to 1st CD voters at a stop in the Quad-Cities. On July 7, he is slated to boost the campaign of Democratic hopeful Bruce Braley, who is battling the GOP's Mike Whalen for the seat vacated by U.S. Rep. Jim Nussle, the Republican now running for governor.

Iowa, Indiana share values

The last time Bayh was in Iowa - only seven weeks ago - he assured a crowd of Polk County Democrats that he shared their values.

"I love coming back to Iowa," Bayh said at a fundraiser. "It’s so much like my home state. You’ve got the same values, the same dreams, the same kind of economy. I just feel right at home."

Bayh often refers to faith when giving public speeches. At the Georgia state Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in March (see HPR, March 16) he said Democrats "need to remind [voters] that we share their values, the great American values, of hope and opportunity and patriotism and faith. We take a second place to no one when it comes to that kind of thing, and in fact, we have more in common with people of faith than they’ve been led to believe."

Indiana's former governor, an Episcopalian, was even more forthright as featured speaker at the national conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Washington, D.C., in March (see HPR, March 9).

"I believe, deep in my heart, that the United States and Israel are exceptional nations; and, have been placed upon this earth to achieve humanity’s highest aspirations. And if we do not tire, if we do not cease, if we carry on with our labors through thick and thin, it is my deepest conviction that one day we will know the blessing of a benevolent God, known by many names in many faiths and many traditions."

Supported flag amendment

Earlier this week Sen. Bayh voted in support of Senate legislation which called for a constitutional amendment banning desecration of the American flag. The proposal was defeated when it fell one vote short of the necessary 67 required to advance. Of the 16 Democrats who supported the amendment, Bayh was the only one currently considered a presidential contender. The five Democratic senators thought to be in competition with Bayh were opposed.

"This is an important issue, and I understand how people have differences of opinion on it," he said. "I support giving the flag special protection because it is the symbol of our country and out of respect for the sacrifice of our servicemen and women."

In other legislative news from the past week, the senator's office noted:

• The Senate passed a Defense Authorization bill that included an amendment authored by Bayh;

• Bayh joined 25 colleagues in a letter urging the Senate to "secure $8 million to triple the number of E-85 pumps available at gas stations nationwide";

• The senator also joined an effort supported by 57 senators to urge "the Bush Administration to defend U.S. access to foreign agriculture markets during World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations";

• He co-sponsored two bills to provide greater identity theft protection for veterans and active duty military personnel; and,

• Democratic Sens. Patrick Leahy (VT) and Ted Kennedy (MA) have signed on in support of Bayh's hallmark energy legislation, the Vehicle and Fuel Choices for American Security Act, bringing the number of co-sponsors to 28.

Iowa schedule

July 6: Des Moines event honoring Iowa Democratic State House and Senate Campaign Committees; and, Dallas County event with Selden Spencer, 4th CD candidate.

July 7: Clinton event with State Sen. Roger Stewart and Rep. Polly Bukta; and, Scott County event with Bruce Braley, 1st CD candidate.

July 8: Muscatine event with State Rep. Nathan Reichert; Burlington event with State Sen. Tom Courtney; Iowa City event with Dave Loebsack, 2nd CD candidate; and, Cedar Rapids event to honor Democratic State House challengers.

Debate over Iraq amendments will shape Democratic platform

2006-06-22T09:07:00.000-04:00

Debate over Iraq amendments
will shape Democratic platform

For Howey Political Report, June 22, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

For months now, Evan Bayh has insisted that the Democratic Party must assert its national security credentials if it is ever to regain the Congress or White House. Today may be the day.

Today, the Senate is expected to vote on a pair of amendments sponsored by Democrats that call for the U.S. to begin a withdrawal from Iraq. Both are opposed by the controlling Republican Party and there is little chance either will pass. But the debate is certain to play a defining role in this year's midterm elections and possibly even impact the run-up to the 2008 presidential race.

Republicans have remained largely unified and on-message. They say the opposition party is proposing that America "cut and run" from Iraq by imposing an "arbitrary" timeline for withdrawal. Democrats, on the other hand, are divided about when and how the war should end. As a result, they have as yet been unable to communicate a strategy that appeals to the wide range of voters who have indicated they are increasingly pessimistic about the war.

Any common ground?

Yet it is possible that today's vote may eventually bring Democrats closer together as they openly air differences and seek common ground.

Senate Democrats by and large are critical of the prosecution of the war and both amendments propose U.S. operations be scaled back. But the party's leadership is opposed to an amendment offered by Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) that calls for establishing a fixed date (July 2007) for troop departure. The leadership is supporting instead a less specific, non-binding resolution proposed by Sens. Jack Reed (D-RI) and Carl M. Levin (D-MI). As noted in the Washington Post, their amendment calls for the president "to begin a 'phased redeployment' of U.S. troops by the end of this year. But it does not specify how quickly the drawdown should proceed or when it should be completed."

If any Democrat in the Senate knows what voters expect from their representatives in Washington concerning Iraq, it's Evan Bayh. In this year alone, he has frequented New Hampshire and Iowa and has also met with fellow Democrats in Georgia, Michigan, Florida, California, Indiana and North Carolina, to name a few. His vote will be closely watched by numerous interested parties.

Bayh has established his own credentials on Iraq over the past few years. He supported the 2003 invasion, a vote that more recently has earned him the wrath of some in his party.

"I did what I thought was right at the time based on the facts as I understood them at the time," Bayh told the Washington Post Insider in February of this year (see HPR, April 13). "It turned out some of those facts weren't accurate, so of course you'd make different decisions."

Called for Rumsfeld to resign

About two years ago he made headlines by criticizing what he termed the administration's mishandling of the war and calling for the immediate resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. But it was at a speech this February, when he injected the phrase "tough and smart" into the debate, that the senator began to be widely recognized for his comments on national security (Schoeff, HPR Daily Wire, Feb. 3).

"George W. Bush's saying he wants the 2006 election to be about national security is like Herbert Hoover proudly claiming that the 1930 election should be a referendum on the economy," Bayh said in the widely reported speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"[T]here is absolutely no question the war has been prosecuted with stunning incompetence," he said. "We never had enough troops to secure that country. It's obvious they had no plan for winning the peace."

HPR's Mark Schoeff, Jr., wrote at the time that Bayh said a "tough and smart" approach to Iraq would "establish benchmarks for success, a timeline for progress, accountability for results and candor about how we are doing."

It was on ABC's This Week that Bayh let it be known he had come to the conclusion that there was "no military answer" to Iraq (Howey, HPR Daily Wire, April 17).

Need for deadline

"There may be a political solution, so yes, I think we need to give [the Iraqi government] a hard deadline for making their political decisions," Bayh said. "If they don't do that, there's nothing we can do to help them. By focusing on the security solution, perhaps we can avoid the chaos of a civil war."

HPR Publisher Brian Howey noted that Bayh said a deadline for troop withdrawal "needs to be a private discussion" with Iraqi leaders, who should be told "If you don't make the hard political decisions, we are going to leave at a time and manner that is most convenient for us."

However he votes today, the senator will have plenty of opportunity in the months ahead to elaborate his position. His next scheduled appearance is June 30 at a fundraiser in Illinois' 10th Congressional District, and he most certainly will be visiting Iowa and New Hampshire again over the course of the summer. He will have to counter Republican claims that a withdrawal would amount to a surrender in the war on terror. And, he will face complaints from within the party concerning his initial support of the war. But perhaps somewhere along the line today's debate will prompt Democrats to succeed in crafting a message on Iraq that is agreeable to many in its famously splintered base.

Why the party lost

About a month ago Bayh joined a widely publicized conference on national security sponsored by the Progressive Policy Institute.

"If you ask me why we lost the last presidential election, I'd say more than anything else, it was because of our perceived problems with national security, broadly defined, and the war on terror, more specifically," he said then. "And so that is a place that we need to get to. We can be both good on domestic policy but also strong and smart on national security policy. The two must go hand in hand."

"God forbid there might be something in this country that will remind the American people that it is a dangerous world. And we need parties and leaders who are prepared and capable of dealing with it, not a world as we wish it is - as we wish it was, even though we work toward that objective - but a world as it is that regrettably has evil people in it who wish us ill, and we have to be prepared...to deal with that."

To visit New Orleans tomorrow

Sen. Bayh is scheduled to leave tomorrow to visit New Orleans, where he will meet with local officials to discuss the federal government's emergency response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster and to hear comments about subsequent funding issues. The senator's office also indicated he will meet with owners of small businesses and others in keeping with Bayh's role on the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

For Better Or Worse: Bayh At The Marriage Of Internet & Politics

2006-06-15T09:32:00.000-04:00

For Better Or Worse: Bayh At The Marriage Of Internet & Politics

For Howey Political Report June 15, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

"I used to think that the best feature of the Internet is that it let the common man have his say. Now I realize that it's that we can laugh at those idiots who do." - June 26, 2004 entry at "Journal of chromatic (983)" online

For better or worse, success in politics today goes hand in paw with an effective internet strategy. Tread carefully. The beast online is often hungry and easily angered.

In theory, at least, the internet is a boon to the common man. The powerful instrument for democracy that is the world wide web offers equal voice to anyone with access to a keyboard and an internet connection. These days, anyone means almost everyone. In 2005, the number of Americans considered to be active internet users by Nielsen//NetRatings amounted to 143 million, or almost half of the population.

"In eight years between the 1996 and 2004 presidential campaigns the number of Americans relying on the Internet for political news grew sixfold," the IT Observer reported. Gallup indicated that in 2004 one in five of us depended on the internet as our main source of news.

A force to be reckoned with

Clearly a force to be reckoned with, but how? Politicians are asking themselves the same question.

"While the Internet is not a fresh phenomenon in politics - who can forget the rise and fall of Howard Dean in the 2004 presidential campaign? - a more sophisticated chapter is opening," wrote Jeff Zeleny in the June 11th issue of the Chicago Tribune. "Republicans and Democrats agree that emerging technologies will almost certainly rewrite the rules of American politics, much as television did four decades ago."

Last weekend Indiana's Sen. Evan Bayh visited New Hampshire to gauge and foster support for an increasingly likely run at the White House in 2008. But, while Sen. Bayh ducked the rain and cold weather up north, several other contenders for the Democratic nomination were in Las Vegas romancing the new kid in school - Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, or the Kos.

Moulitsas, purveyor of the internet's most popular liberal blog site the Daily Kos, is said to command a following numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Decidedly from the left wing of the Democratic Party, Kos was described as "the No. 1 Web dispensary of vitriol, vituperation and abuse of George W.," by conservative columnist Wesley Pruden of the Washington Times.

Old and new media, conservative and liberal alike pay close attention to goings-on at the Daily Kos. Many reporters, including Pruden, were in attendance last weekend when some 1,000 like-minded bloggers turned out for the first ever Yearly Kos convention. The gathering in Sin City was described in a New York Times editorial as "the mainstream debut of 'internet-powered politics.'" Well-known democrats asking for a chance at the dance included Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, retired Gen. Wesley Clark and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Yet to make his mark

Despite the hard work of a dedicated few, Indiana's former governor has yet to leave much of an imprint on the blogosphere. That may be about to change, according to Meghan Keck, the senator's press secretary.

"[Sen.] Bayh believes the Internet is a critical part of political outreach in the 21st century," Keck told HPR in an emal. "He posts entries on national blogs, such as the Huffington Post, and will do more of that in the future, and the [All America PAC] sends several emails each month with updates on his recent efforts.

"In addition, the All America PAC will be rolling out a new PAC website in the coming days to better help leading candidates across the country, and has a new staffer who will oversee Internet outreach and serve as an online organizer."

Ryan Alexander is the PAC's new online organizer/blogger. On Tuesday he sent an email to Bayh supporters explaining the new website "will allow us to add a host of interactive features for members of the netroots to interact with Senator Bayh and the All America PAC community."

Finding the center

Any effort to capture and retain the loyalty of potential voters via the internet could serve to help Bayh and the party moderate the leftward pull exerted by the Kos. Yesterday, Bayh blogger and Indiana resident Rob at Confessions of a Hoosier Democrat published these thoughts on the matter.

"Kos and his band of merry men seem to make it a sport to try to tear down any Democrat who doesn't fit the mold they've established," Rob wrote. "If you don't think the same way they do in any number of different areas then you aren't a 'true Democrat.'"

Rob told HPR that he became excited about Bayh when the senator was mentioned as a potential vice president candidate in the last two elections.

"I know Sen. Bayh is a good man with great ideas," he wrote in an email to HPR. Rob has been interested in politics since he was president of the University Democrats while attending Ball State about a dozen years ago.

"I consider myself a moderate," according to his latest blog entry. "I don't believe we should pull out troops out now. I don't believe that Bush should be impeached unless we have ironclad concrete proof he's violated a law. I believe Evan Bayh, Harold Ford and other moderate Democrats ARE good Democrats. Because I believe those things I don't fit into Kos's Democratic Party. That's sad."

Marie operates two websites, Americans for Bayh and Hoosier Democrats. The 1979 graduate of Indiana University told HPR that she started "a very meager blog" in the 2004 election.

"It occured to me that the blog medium might be an opportunity to correct misinformation and get views that were not being shared in the media to those who where interested in the truth," she stated in an email.

Spread the good word

"The goal is to get the positive news about Senator Bayh on the net. At first it was a struggle to find anything on the blogs. Only a few bloggers were talking about Bayh, that's changed in the past year and now Bayh is mentioned somewhere on a blog daily. It's been a fun process."

"So if any one wonders if their little blog can make a difference the answer is 'YES,'" Marie said. "The more people write about Bayh and publish the more will come up on search engines about Bayh and his accomplishments both as a U.S. senator and Indiana's governor. "

Not all Hoosier blogs are positive about Sen. Bayh, of course. Yesterday, the online Indiana Blog Review linked to two such entries. One was an entry by Matt Tully of the Indianapolis Star who reported on the senator's poor showing in a poll of Iowa democrats. "Bayh needs to find a way to start moving up the list," Tully wrote. "For starters, perhaps he can at least start beating 'none of these.'"

Unhappy blog

Bill Browning of the LGBT blog Bilerico was critical of the senator's response to a question posed during a gathering of Hoosier bloggers hosted by Bayh. "I get the distinct impression that the good Senator's office has avoided answering my question" about the state constitutional amendment to outlaw civil marriage for gays and lesbians, his entry stated. "As far as presidential contenders, Bayh is no Dennis Kucinich or Russ Feingold," Browning wrote. "Although with a recent Iowa poll showing Bayh running behind 'None of These,' do we really have to worry about a Bayh presidential bid much longer?"

Ouch. No one said the relationship would be easy. The whole idea of the lunch, according to Keck, Bayh's press rep, was to give the senator "the opportunity to learn more about the issues and ideas that local bloggers are interested in and to introduce himself to some of the Hoosiers who cover politics on their blogs." Although Bilerico was not the only blogger who complained after the Bayh meeting (see HPR, May 25), most reports were favorable.

Now Sen. Bayh faces a dilemma. He must somehow enlist support for moderate policies via an internet currently dominated by a camp the Times' Pruden described as "so far out in the solar system, somewhere beyond Pluto, that Hillary Clinton is regarded as the ruling goddess of the vast right-wing media conspiracy."

So far, Evan Bayh has orchestrated a remarkably successful movement in terms of fundraising (third among democrats) and organization (he's assembled an all-star cast). Veteran pundits like Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post note that as the hardest-working potential Democratic candidate he's made many of the right moves. His frequent trips to Iowa and New Hampshire come to mind. But it looks quite possible that bloggers like Marie and Rob, and staffers like Ryan Alexander, will play an increasingly important role if the senator is to have the opportunity to walk down the aisle during the next presidential election.

Bayh looks to connect with New Hampshire democrats

2006-06-08T09:24:00.000-04:00

Bayh looks to connect with New Hampshire democrats

For Howey Political Report June 8, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

It's going to be a cold and wet weekend in New Hampshire but indications are Sen. Evan Bayh can expect a warm welcome Friday and Saturday as he attends six events in five cities.

Sen. Bayh is making his second visit in less than three months to gauge and foster support for an increasingly likely run for the White House. Of course, he is not the only presidential aspirant traversing the Granite State these days. Colin Manning, statehouse reporter for the Foster's Daily Democrat in Dover told HPR at least four other democrats will tour New Hampshire in the coming days, while Salon reports that two others were well-received last weekend.

Friday, Indiana's former governor lunches downstate with local elected officials in Manchester before attending a Democratic dinner 100 miles upstate in Bartlett. The next day Bayh starts out with a late morning reception a dozen miles from the seacoast in Rollinsford and then heads west for a lunchtime event in Concord. His journey ends in the city of Keene, population 23,000, which serves as the seat of government for Cheshire County located in the state's southwest corner.

Keene is a great place for the second-term senator to make a name for himself, according to Manning, who has been covering the statehouse for three years.

Democratic stronghold

"Cheshire County is probably the one county in the state where there are more registered democrats than republicans," he said.

Bayh will appear at two events in Keene to launch the state senate campaign of Hoosier-born Molly Kelly, described by Manning as "an up and comer" with the potential to regain a seat held by GOP Sen. Thomas R. Eaton through four terms.

"A lot of democrats think they can win that one back," Manning said.

"It's just so wonderful that Sen. Bayh is coming out here," Kelly told HPR. She left home in Fort Wayne at age 21 more than two dozen years ago and ended up marrying and raising a family in New Hampshire.

"All my life I've been in politics," she said. Her parents were very involved in civil rights and the Vietnam war movement. "I always had the opportunity to meet wonderful, wonderful thinkers and people who cared about the community. People like Birch Bayh."

Area democrats know who Evan Bayh is, Kelly said, noting he "is a very big draw."

A real kickoff

"This is a real kickoff for me," she said, indicating Bayh's appearance will help her with name recognition and "to get the excitement going," especially for an evening fundraiser expected to draw about 75 supporters. Many will take advantage of the opportunity to size up Sen. Bayh.

"This would not happen if not for the senator coming here," she said, noting later in the interview, "You can send a check or you can come to a reception with Sen. Bayh, so that's great."

Bayh is "definitely generating some news" and is "pretty well received here," said Manning. When asked for his impression of the candidate, the reporter recalled hearing Bayh address the New Hampshire delegation at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. "He seemed like a pretty well-polished guy. Other than that I don't remember too much about him. Well-polished, well-spoken, articulate."

Manning was most interested in the reception for state Sen. Iris Estabrook in Rollinsford, which falls into the Daily Democrat's coverage area.

"I know [Sen. Estabrook] is very excited about that fundraiser," the reporter said.

Quid pro quo

'"It's a quid pro quo kind of thing," Manning said. "[Bayh] gets to come into the state and stump for the democrats at the same time he's trying to raise his name ID for a possible presidential election.

"At the same time he is a national figure, he is known in the state and can attract some democrats and some money for Sen. Estabrook in a district that is very friendly to democrats. And that's a good place for him to make a lot of inroads, too, on the seacoast of New Hampshire, which is highly Democratic and went huge for John Kerry and with Gov. [John] Lynch (D) in the last election."

This sort of travel is hard work, and no other 2008 contender works harder at it than Sen. Evan Bayh. Last weekend he conducted a top-to-bottom tour of Indiana to promote energy legislation. The weekend before that he was navigating Iowa in much the same way he will crisscross New Hampshire. And the weekend before that he was in Indiana to address the state Democratic Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.

Pundits of all stripes are taking note. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's blog The Fix wrote in the June 2nd entry, "We've long maintained that Indiana Sen. Bayh will surprise some people in '08. He and his campaign team continue to make smart - and often overlooked - moves that should pay dividends down the line." That same day, MSNBC's Tom Curry said on on "Hardball with Chris Matthews" that he "found a lot of interest in Evan Bayh" during a trip to Iowa. The Washington Times of May 30 reported that Bayh was among the three potential Democractic presidential candidates who "most worry" former Republican House Speaker Newt Gringrich.

Worries Gringrich

"Either [former Virginia] Gov. Mark Warner or [Indiana] Sen. Evan Bayh have a lot to offer the Democratic Party because they're more moderate," Gringrich told the Times, although he predicted that either would have a very tough time beating New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the nomination.

According to Walter Shapiro of Salon, Warner was accorded "rock-star status" at the New Hampshire Democratic convention last weekend, and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) "earned" a half-dozen standing ovations during a "fiery" breakfast speech.

Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) is touring the state today, Manning, the statehouse reporter, told HPR. On Wednesday, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack visits, followed next weekend by Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE).

"Bill Clinton is coming to the state on June 27th to do a fundraiser with the governor's wife on childhood obesity," Manning said. "You have to think he's laying the groundwork for Sen. Clinton's run at the presidency."

Will he connect?

No matter how the Democratic candidate selection schedule shakes out for 2008, it appears a strong showing in the New Hampshire primaries or Iowa caucuses will be critical if Sen. Bayh is to become widely accepted as one who can win the White House. One big question - will his views connect with voters in these two states?

HPR asked Molly Kelly what issues are important to her campaign.

"I really feel like the state and probably the nation - we know the nation as well - right now is very polarized and negative," she said. "We need leadership in the [state] Senate that can work across party lines, bring people together, communicate and work together and really find solutions and results. That's what I'm good at and that's what I intend to do."

When this writer pointed out that Sen. Bayh often makes a similar statement during campaign speeches, Kelly replied:

"I know and that's great and he is very successful."

Bayh Talks Energy, Ads Talk Marriage Amendment

2006-06-01T09:08:00.000-04:00

Bayh Talks Energy, Ads Talk Marriage Amendment
For Howey Political Report June 1, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Sen. Evan Bayh winds up a two-day, eight-city tour across the state today to acquaint Hoosiers with particulars of an energy plan that his office said "outlines an economic roadmap for Indiana to become the capital of the new energy economy."

After serving as keynote speaker this morning at the Indianapolis Business Journal's Business Growth Strategies summit beginning at 8:30 a.m. (ET), the senator is slated to appear at a Jiffy Mini-Mart in Terre Haute two hours later, then visit the Evansville Transit Center at 11:15 (CT) before stopping by Hap's Aerial at the Jeffersonville airport early this afternoon.

Yesterday he visited Gary, South Bend, Fort Wayne and Lafayette.

Tom Coyne of the Associated Press wrote that during an appearance at the New Energy Corp. ethanol plant in South Bend, Bayh indicated "The United States needs to take a similar approach to solving its dependency on oil as it did in putting a man on the moon."

Bayh’s Vehicle and Fuel Choices for American Security Act aims to cut oil consumption some 10 million barrels per day over 25 years, in part by boosting production and consumption of alternative fuels, including ethanol, and offering incentives to produce and purchase electric drive and alternative motor vehicles. The bill would also raise vehicle fuel efficiency standards, order the federal and state governments to reduce fleet petroleum consumption by nearly a third and increase funding for research and development. (See HPR, April 27)

No more Mideast oil

Bayh has said in recent speeches that his bill would completely eliminate the need to import oil from the Middle East within 10 years. He also has insisted that the nation's energy challenge can be made into "a real opportunity" for American businesses and workers.

"We can create hundreds of thousands of good jobs in this country in the energy sector, including building high-mileage vehicles right here in Detroit, Michigan and across Indiana, if we just dedicate ourselves to doing exactly that," Bayh told Michigan democrats in April

VK Sharma, director of engineering for International Truck in Fort Wayne, told Victoria Edwards of the News-Sentinel yesterday that Bayh's legislation "will bring economic growth to Indiana, and provides the economic blueprint to build Indiana into the new energy economy."

Family matters

While Bayh has been out stumping for legislation that senators on both sides of the aisle say will help solve America's energy problem, Focus on Family Action has put together an advertising campaign in support of the Federal Marriage Amendment that asks "Why Doesn't Senator Bayh Believe Every Child Needs a Mother and a Father."

According to Focus on the Family Action Media Representative Christopher Norfleet, the ads ran yesterday in the Indianapolis Star, South Bend Tribune and Evansville Courier-Press. Radio ads also played on stations in those same cities as well as in Fort Wayne and Bloomington.

The half-page ad that appeared on Page A9 of yesterday's Star featured a freckle-faced boy cupping his hands to his cheeks and looking quizzically at the camera. "Every child understands how important a mom and a dad are," the ad copy reads. "But apparently Sen. Bayh needs a reminder."

For comment, HPR contacted a representative of Indiana Equality, a coalition of Hoosier organizations with the stated mission of "ensuring basic human rights for Indiana's lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender citizens."

'Divisive and unnecessary'

Indiana Equality Communications Chair Jerame Davis wrote in an email that "The divisive and unnecessary federal constitutional amendment- which failed overwhelmingly when last brought before Congress - would ban not only same-sex civil marriage, but also any 'legal incident of marriage' for unmarried couples - both straight and gay. This proposal, like the one that will be considered by the Indiana General Assembly in 2007, undercuts equal protection, threatening every government-enforced protection and every vestige of first-class citizenship for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender Hoosiers."

John Clower, who chairs the organization, stated "Hoosiers, along with the rest of our country's citizens, face great challenges today - record high gas prices, an endless and costly war in Iraq, and skyrocketing health care costs that are bankrupting families and businesses

"Instead of addressing these real challenges, the Republican leadership in Congress and the Indiana General Assembly has chosen to put politics ahead of real progress by debating a divisive amendment on marriage," continued Clower. "The last thing Hoosiers want are legislators reaching into a family's private life."

Sen. Bayh told a group of Indiana bloggers last week that his opposition to the current federal amendment is based on constitutional grounds. He also voted against a previous Federal Marriage Amendment which failed to pass the Senate in July 2004.

Not a simple sound bite

It's difficult to reduce the senator's position to a headline or a simple sound bite. In response to an HPR query, the senator's office emailed the following statement:

"Senator Bayh does not support same-sex marriage. He thinks marriage should be between one man and one woman. That is currently the law in Indiana and the law nationally. He also believes that the Constitution should only be amended when absolutely necessary, not because of hypothetical situations that may or may not come to pass. If the Supreme Court ever strikes down the state or national laws prohibiting same-sex marriage, then he believes that a Constitutional amendment should be considered."

Despite the fact he does not support same sex marriage, Bayh is consistently rated high on GLBT issues by the Human Rights Campaign, which describes itself as "America’s largest civil rights organization working to achieve gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender equality." In ranking the Congress before the 2004 election, HRC scored Bayh at 75, compared with 88 for Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) or 17 for Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN).

Earlier this year Bayh announced Congress had passed legislation on his first bill in the Senate, the Responsible Fatherhood Act, which will provide funding for state and private organizations to establish responsible fatherhood workshops. "As a father, Senator Bayh understands that strong families are crucial to our children’s future success," reads an item entitled "Fatherhood" on his website at senate.gov., and the senator often weaves family into his discussions of today's most pressing issues when he takes to the stump.

"You know, enabling all our children to overcome the obstacles that have been placed in their way, to help them fulfill their God-given potential, that has to be our cause," he said earlier this month at the Indiana Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. "Our cause has got to be a little girl who came up to me in Valparaiso a few years back. It was at an early childhood development center. It was a step ahead program, all the programs in that community gathered together to help little girls like that. She had a frilly dress on and bright blue eyes and she threw her arms around me and looked into my face and she broke my heart. Because she looked up at me and said, 'Will you be my daddy?' She lost her father and her mother lived in an institution. You know, thinking of reaching out to girls like that and helping them make the most of what God may have to offer them, helping them carve out a future and have a tomorrow and let them know they’re not being left by themselves, but that we all care as much about them as we do our own. That must be our cause in these elections."

A Moderate In Partisan Times

2006-05-25T09:02:00.000-04:00

A Moderate In Partisan Times

For the Howey Political Report May 25, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

"Greatness does not happen by accident. It is earned, it is made, it is created by those who have the strength to make it happen, and so must we."

That's what Sen. Evan Bayh said during commencement ceremonies at DePauw University last Sunday. Standing beneath a wide blue sky on a gorgeous Indiana afternoon, addressing the large crowd come to see the 607 students in the Class of 2006 graduate, he offered this explanation for America's greatness.

"What makes America special, for more than 10 generations, is that each generation has been willing to meet the challenges of its time, the sacrifices, the tough decisions, the hard going," he said in the gentle voice and style familiar to many Hoosiers. "That’s what happened in Concord, that’s what happened in Gettysburg, that’s what happened on the cliffs of Normandy, that’s what has always happened to make America great. Now it’s our time to give that idea, that promise a renewed sense of vitality and a reality in the context of our own times."

It was an inspired turn of phrase and the kind one would hope to hear at just such an event, conveying ideas one might expect from a politician with lots of practice at public speaking. Perhaps more importantly, the words were tempered with the same sense of conviction and encouragement that Bayh has delivered on the stump all over the country in his effort to be a contender in the 2008 presidential election.

Earlier in the weekend the senator was in Iowa to attend fundraiser events for local candidates. Bayh has already begun to invest time, money and manpower in Iowa in hopes of building support before the caucuses which could make or break his candidacy. Writing for MSNBC, Tom Curry (no relation) noted "the Indiana senator's mellow demeanor, folksy Midwestern charm and credentials as a governor and U.S. senator gave Bayh threshold credibility with most of the rank-and-file democrats he met." The senator is building credibility wherever he goes these days. On Monday, Rob Harrington, who writes the blog "Confessions of a Hoosier Democrat," cited six bloggers ranging from Iowa to Georgia who reported they were surprised to come away with a favorable first impression after hearing Bayh for the first time.

But not all who hear Sen. Bayh are convinced or encouraged. According to MSNBC's Curry, the senator's vote in support of the 2003 invasion of Iraq troubled some of Iowa's democrats, including one woman who was unhappy with his response to her questions. As Curry wrote, "With exasperation in her voice, she said, 'I wanted him to say to say we were leaving Iraq tomorrow. At this point, I don’t care if there is a civil war in Iraq, because there already is a civil war.'"

Hoosier Joshua Claybourn of the blog In The Agora wrote this week that he, too, walked away less than satisfied after meeting with Bayh. Claybourn said he was disappointed in Bayh's less-than-specific answer to a very specific question offered during an event designed to promote the senator among Indiana bloggers, leading the writer to complain that "With Bayh the only ideology appears to be a lack of ideology."

"In my mind this is Bayh's biggest hurdle, and indeed the challenge facing the national Democratic party," Clayburn later wrote. "Americans are disillusioned with Bush's leadership, but unsure about their alternative. That attitude will get Democrats a few more House seats and perhaps even a president in '08. But it won't inspire a lasting movement. That is Bayh's challenge."

Winning converts as a moderate in partisan times is no easy task. The Spring 2006 issue of the UVA (University of Virginia) Lawyer included a friendly yet thoughtful article on alumnus Evan Bayh, who earned his law degree in 1981. Author Cullen Couch said it best: "...it won't be easy for a moderate to finesse a primary system where third-party interest groups funded by the most zealous partisans of both sides build huge war chests to drive wedge issues for short-term political gain."

"The center of the common ground has been eroded by politics," Bayh told Couch, "and the irony is that I find a thirst on the part of the American people for more consensus, for greater reconciliation of differences. I don’t think the political process is representing their desires as well as it needs to."

The pressure to compromise must have been striking for Sen. Bayh this week as the Senate Intelligence Committee deliberated President Bush's nomination of Gen. Michael Hayden to be CIA director, but on Tuesday he voted against the confirmation which passed 12-3.

"My vote against confirming General Hayden was not based upon any objection to the man – he is an outstanding person and a patriot," Bayh said in a statement (see HPR Daily Wire, May 24). "Nor was my vote in opposition to aggressive surveillance of terror suspects. I support such activities. My vote was an objection to the Administration’s unwillingness to ensure both our physical security and our civil liberties."

As might be expected, the nuance articulated by the senator was quickly lost in the ensuing media frenzy. Katherine Shrader of the Associated Press failed to mention the reasoning behind Bayh's stance but found room to include a quote from Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, the current darling of the net roots left. The Wall Street Journal's James Taranto also omitted Bayh's statement but gleefully criticized the vote in the widely circulated "Best of the Web Today" email newsletter under the heading "Buh-Bayh, Moderation."

"This is further evidence that every Democrat in the field is trying to position himself as the left-wing alternative to Hillary Clinton," Taranto wrote.

As proof that Bayh's ideas resonate with many pundits, consider the May 22 column by the Washington Post's Jackson Diehl, who stated that "a coalition of mostly younger foreign affairs professionals...who have spent the past several years formulating a distinctly Democratic response to the post-Sept. 11 era....are beginning to gravitate toward some of the centrist Democrats who...might actually emerge as serious presidential candidates in 2008," including Evan Bayh.

At least people are hearing what Bayh has to say, even if they don't always agree. Building a consensus is difficult, and even more so among today's deeply divided electorate, but, as the senator told DePauw graduates last Sunday, "America is at its best and at its strongest not when we are divided, but when we are a one people with a common heritage and a common destiny.

"This country has always been a crucible in which we take our differences and instead find common ground."

Where the votes are: Bayh courts the center

2006-05-18T09:24:00.000-04:00

Where the votes are: Bayh courts the center

For Howey Political Report May 18, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

It's the sort of scenario that must be driving democrats crazy these days: A group of Cub Scout parents are waiting for a den meeting to end at a Catholic church in a firmly Democratic enclave of suburban Maryland.

"So, you still happy you voted for President Bush?" one asks with a tinge of "I told you so" in his voice.

Over the next 10 minutes the five moms and dads nod in agreement as each cites reasons behind a growing discontent with both the administration and the Republican Party. Cracking down on illegals will hurt the construction business and tank the economy, says the head of a multi-million dollar design/build firm. Energy prices are killing the family budget, explains the mom who home schools her two boys. Another is worried the war on terror might lead to an irreversible loss of civil liberties, and all signal their fears about prospects in Iraq.

Voters dissatisfied

The general sense points to a group of moderate voters representing both parties who are convinced little if any progress is being made on serious challenges facing the country. These same voters also make it a point to accuse the democrats of failing to muster a unified, much less viable, opposition. Each voices a familiar litany of criticisms - the party is too fractured, the fringe is too noisy, Hillary doesn't have a chance, they don't have any good ideas, and so on.

"There are plenty of good Democrats with good ideas who aren't Hillary Clinton," interjects one dad. "Mark Warner and Evan Bayh are two you just don't seem to hear much about."

But - and this is the maddening part - it quickly becomes clear the others aren't interested in learning the substance of those "good ideas" as the conversation moves to a discussion of plans for this summer's family campout.

Quite the opposite is true of voters on either side of center. Leaders on the left and right have no trouble identifying solutions that motivate their bases around the sort of issues you can number using a few fingers. Just yesterday Indiana Rep. Mike Pence told a group of conservative bloggers that if Republicans are to have a chance in the midterms they need focus on a mere three issues: Limited government, fiscal discipline and rule of law (Human Events). A quick visit to the Daily Kos website reveals the gist of the far left's agenda: Rid the world of one George W. Bush.

A near impossible task

Politicians who court the center - like Sen. Evan Bayh - face the near impossible task of crafting a message that appeals to a wide range of moderates, a group that by definition represents a multitude of views concerning any number of issues. As noted on Wikipedia, "Some political moderates are 'bi-polar' in the sense that they side with right-wingers on certain classes of issues, but with left-wingers on others, rather than consistently staking out intermediate positions across the board."

If it's difficult to get the attention of a moderate, it's even harder to get them to listen. Fiscal conservatives are naturally attracted to Rep. Pence's fiscal and constitutional conservatism, while politicians like Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) or Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) rally left-wing liberals by voicing opposition to the Iraq war. But it's not so easy to rally moderate voters who often are influenced by multiple and sometimes competing messages and issues before solidly, if ever, identifying with a candidate.

So why should a politician expend considerable amounts of time and money to establish a broad-based reputation among moderates, when it would be easier and initially less expensive to claim the high ground on just one or two issues among voters more closely aligned with an ideology? Because that is where the votes are. In the 2004 presidential election, network exit polls indicated voters most often considered themselves to be moderates (45%) before conservatives (34%) and liberals (21%) (CNN). As Sen. Bayh reportedly has said, "Do the math."

Overcoming the challenges

It appears Sen. Bayh employs a multi-prong strategy to overcome the challenges he faces in the struggle to be considered a leading presidential contender: Create name recognition; articulate for the record substantial positions on key issues; introduce hallmark legislation and work for its passage; woo Democratic donors; build relationships with influential party members and candidates; and, reach out to a range of Democratic, independent and Republican voters who might by election day be persuaded to align themselves with a Bayh presidential ticket.

As noted time and again by HPR, he has laid considerable groundwork for the cause. No other candidate to date has spent as much time speaking at state Jefferson-Jackson dinners, meeting with potential donors, fund raising for Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire, and influencing the national party agenda, all while tirelessly working to further solidify his credentials as a lawmaker. As evidence consider his schedule over the next several days. Tomorrow he flies to Iowa where he is slated to speak at the Polk County Spring Fundraiser in Des Moines and on Saturday at a fund raiser for local candidates in Osceola, Council Bluffs and Sioux City. On Sunday he returns to Indiana to offer the commencement address at DePauw University in Greencastle, which will be aired at a later date on CSPAN. On Monday morning Bayh visits the Rahal Letterman Racing Team Ethanol garages at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway "to promote ethanol use as a key provision in [his] energy plan."

Seeding the field

Last weekend he was in town to speak at the Indiana J-J and to address the 100-plus participants in Camp Bayh, a three-day event at IUPUI to train present and future political professionals and candidates in "the nuts and bolts of organizing campaigns." As a participant, this reporter found the camp to be highly informative on the basics of campaigning and was most impressed with his plan to seed a select group of 50 graduates among key state and congressional races throughout the country.

These efforts have been recognized by many and disregarded by some both in and out of the party. Analyst Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report wrote last week that Bayh has "a great shot" if "Democrats are feeling pragmatic." On the other hand is John W. Mashek of U.S. News & World Report who, while stipulating the difficulty of winnowing the Democratic field, leaves Sen. Bayh out of the list of contenders.

So far it looks like the 2008 presidential race will be unlike any other in recent memory. Perhaps Evan Bayh's dedication and work ethic and his innovative strategy and targeted tactics will succeed in securing him a place on the ballot. Only time will tell.

Another busy week for Sen. Evan Bayh

2006-05-04T09:24:00.000-04:00

Another busy week for Sen. Evan Bayh

For Howey Political Report May 4, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

It's been another busy week for Sen. Evan Bayh. The two-term senator has been in and out of the spotlight in both local and national venues ranging from the Linton Daily Citizen and the University of Virginia's Cavalier Daily to MSNBC and the Drudge Report.

A Drive Across The Street?

On April 28, the 7,500 subscribers to Linton's newspaper were treated to a short item about Bayh in a column by the assignments editor. Nick Schneider commented on a story reported by the Washington Post April 26 which poked fun at a bevy of the nation's Senators who have bemoaned rising oil prices yet were seen using gas-guzzling SUVs to "drive across the street."

"What the senators were driving showed a bit of insincerity and double-standardness that tells me that the problem [of high gas prices] won't be solved any time soon," wrote Schneider, who went on to note that Bayh was seen entering a 14-mpg Dodge Durango V8 presumably for the quick trip back to his office, which is located across the street in the Russell Building. On April 30, after dozens of news outlets across the country reported on the Post story, including the HPR Daily Wire and others in Indiana, the senator's office told the Indianapolis Star that "Sen. Evan Bayh does not get picked up at the Capitol for the drive across the street to his Senate office, as the Post reported...'so he must have been going to a meeting or other event.'"

Sen. Bayh's staff was undoubtedly more pleased with the content of an opinion article entitled "A winning duo for 2008" published in the April 28 issue of The Cavalier Daily. Josh Levy, an opinion columnist for the University of Virginia's student newspaper, looked into a crystal ball to learn who the Democrats will run for president in the 2008 election and saw a ticket headed by Evan Bayh with former Virginia Governor Mark Warner as veep. "Bayh will be able to appeal to many across party lines with his record of reining in government spending," Levy wrote.

'Call Me Cynical'

Yesterday, the MSNBC website ran an article written by Howard Fineman of Newsweek that recounted a recent lunch with political consultant and Democrat James Carville. The name of a certain former Indiana governor came up during the course of the meal.

"I don’t think Mark Warner is catching on out there, but Evan Bayh is raising a surprising amount of money," Carville said. Fineman commented:

"Call me cynical, but this would indicate to me that Carville is more worried about Warner - a former governor of Virginia, with $200 million of his own money - than he is about Sen. Bayh, the carefully decent but determinedly uncharismatic centrist from Indiana."

The Indiana senator's effort to garner name recognition was boosted considerably shortly after noon on Tuesday when the Drudge Report, which claims more than 11 million hits a day, posted a link that read "Dem '08 Hopeful Bayh: Electoral College Should Be Eliminated..." The link, which remained on Drudge for several hours, transported the reader to the pages of the Raleigh, N.C., News & Observer and the gist of an interview with Bayh dated May 1.

Electoral College 'Not Appropriate'

Staff Writer Rob Christensen was assigned to interview Bayh who was in Raleigh last weekend to speak at the state Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner. The interview included questions about Democratic prospects in 2008, the war in Iraq, and jogging with North Carolina favorite son John Edwards. Further into the interview the reporter asked "Why do you think we should abolish the Electoral College?" Bayh's reply:

"I think our president should be chosen by the majority of the American people. That is ordinarily the case. But in 2000, as we all recall, we elected this president with fewer votes than the other candidate got. I just don't think in the modern era that is appropriate."

Taking Care Of Business

Bayh's office distributed four press releases in the last week:

• Bayh Continues Fight to End Patriot Penalty: Senator introduces amendment to expand eligibility for Patriot Penalty relief (April 27)

• Bayh to Introduce Legislation to Fully Fund U.S. Special Operations Command Intelligence Collection Capabilities and Personnel Needs: As part of tough and smart national security plan, Senator says America must maintain intelligence edge (April 28)

• Bayh Offers Senate Resolution to Lower Foreign Trade Barriers on U.S. Goods: Senator says high tariffs create unfair playing field, hurting U.S. workers and manufacturers (May 2)

• Bayh Pushes to Close Tax Gap: Senator says closing tax gap is first step to reducing deficit (Bayh is urging an increase in funding for IRS tax enforcement activities) (May 2)

Just before noon today he was slated to join Sens. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), Norm Coleman (R-MN), Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) at a press conference to outline legislation they are introducing, the Enhanced Energy Security Act of 2006, which "aims to reduce U.S. oil demand by increasing fuel efficiency, new technologies and related programs," according to a media advisory.

The senator will be in Indianapolis next weekend to appear at two events that are open to the press May 13.

Earlier in the day he will speak to participants at the first-ever "Camp Bayh," a three-day event at IUPUI to train future political professionals in "the nuts and bolts of organizing campaigns."

Later he will appear at the Indiana J-J dinner to hear Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) deliver the keynote speech.

Bayh is slated to present the DePauw University commencement address May 21.

Energy independence among our greatest challenges, Bayh says

2006-04-27T08:52:00.000-04:00

Energy independence among our greatest challenges, Bayh says
For Howey Political Report April 27, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

America turned its attention to the gas pump this week when rapid increases raised prices to more than $3 a gallon in many areas of the country, about 25 cents more than just two weeks ago.

Oil industry analysts blamed supply disruptions, geopolitical worries and limited refining capacity, but a CNN poll indicates voters blame the oil companies (49 percent) and President Bush (38 percent).

"[C]onsiderable anxiety exists in the general public about gas - its price and availability," Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post wrote yesterday in his political blog, The Fix. "It is a prototypical pocketbook issue - one that every American (Democrat, Republican and independent) can identify with and one that people want the government to address."

President Bush took to the airwaves Tuesday to soothe the troubled electorate and announce a "four-part plan to confront high gasoline prices."

"I think we need to follow suit on what we have been emphasizing, particularly through the energy bill, and that is to encourage conservation, to expand domestic production, and to develop alternative sources of energy like ethanol," he said.

Crude oil prices began to drop almost immediately on the announcement.

The real problem at the pump is America's short attention span. Experts have been warning us for decades of the dangers inherent in an energy system contingent on the development, production and delivery of foreign oil. Yet today, even after 9/11, our imports continue to grow.

Vulnerable To Energy Blackmail

"One of the lessons from September 11th is that we can no longer be so dependent on places like Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela for our energy supply," Sen. Evan Bayh said in a recent statement. "We and our allies are vulnerable to energy blackmail."

The Indiana Democrat says our continuing reliance on other countries demonstrates a failure in leadership. In mid-March, he told an audience in Georgia that "one of the great challenges of our generation is this whole issue of energy independence. I don’t think we can expect much progress under this administration."

"There was a moment there following [September 11th] where the American people were willing to be summoned to do what it takes to make real progress on this issue," he said.

"I had people stopping me on the streets in Indianapolis...literally they said to me, 'Evan, what can I do? I want to help my country, what can I do?' This president was asked that question in a press conference about a week after the attack. One of the reporters said to him, 'Mr. President, the American people are asking what they can do to help their country.' Any of you remember what the President said? 'Go to the mall, go shopping.' Well, I’m sorry, that’s not leadership, and we can do better than that."

The answer, Bayh says, is legislation he proposed in November that would ultimately reduce the amount of oil Americans use by a third of current daily consumption (see HPR, March 2). In response to an HPR query, Bayh press secretary Meghan Keck pointed out that the list of senators co-sponsoring S.2025 continues to grow, with Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) signing onto the legislation on Monday, bringing the number of co-sponsors to 16.

Sen. Bayh "was encouraged that some of the small steps President Bush called for in his speech this week are already included in his energy plan, but believes that the president should go farther and support his bipartisan legislation," Keck wrote to HPR in an email. "If he did so, it could be law in a matter of weeks."

Indiana's senior Senator, Richard Lugar, is among five Republicans listed as co-sponsors. Lugar, a leading proponent for change in the nation's energy policy, touted the bill during a much-heralded speech at the Brookings Institution March 13, when he said "energy is the albatross of U.S. national security."

"What is needed is an urgent national campaign led by a succession of Presidents and Congresses who will ensure that American ingenuity and resources are fully committed to this problem," Lugar said.

A Declaration Of Energy Independence

On Saturday, Bayh will keynote the North Carolina Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Celebration. As in other recent speeches, Bayh is expected to tell the crowd in Raleigh that America needs a "declaration of energy independence."

"We need to focus like a laser – I think there is a real opportunity here - on the whole energy situation," Bayh told a gathering of Michigan Democrats April 8. "We can create hundreds of thousands of good jobs in this country in the energy sector, including building high-mileage vehicles right here in Detroit, Michigan and across Indiana, if we just dedicate ourselves to doing exactly that."

Time on the road pays off as Bayh banks $10 million

2006-04-20T11:28:00.000-04:00

Time on the road pays off as Bayh banks $10 million
For Howey Political Report April 20, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Good news for Sen. Evan Bayh: After several months of relentless touring and fund raising, he has about $10 million in the Senate campaign account which can be applied to a run for the White House should he so choose.

The bad news? It may take up to 10 times that amount just to be considered a serious contender in the primaries, though some strategists say a challenger with "only" $35 to $50 million to spend could win the nomination if early primary victories attracted new donors.

The national election may be more than 30 months away, but the 2008 presidential contest is already shaping up to be the most expensive ever.

$100 Million Entry Fee?

"There is a growing sense that there is going to be a $100 million entry fee at the end of 2007 to be considered a serious candidate," Michael E. Toner, the chairman of the Federal Election Commission, recently told the Washington Post. The newspaper notes that many analysts believe each major-party candidate will need to raise in excess of $400 million before it's all over.

By all measures, the senator is a fund raising success. As noted in the Post, Bayh has devoted more time with donors than any other 2008 candidate, and the $1 million in his All America PAC account combined with the Senate campaign funds puts him ahead of most of the competition. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) is said to have $13 million leftover from the 2004 election, but the most notable exception is New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who dominates both fellow Democrats and also the Republicans with a bank book showing $18 million cash on hand.

Doug Muzzio of Baruch College explained to the New York Daily News that Clinton's eye-popping achievements not only demonstrate she can raise money but that she is an outstanding organizer as well.

"She's sending a message to the Mark Warners, the Evan Bayhs, that she's going to be extremely powerful," said Muzzio.

Former Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner, who made a fortune as co-founder of Nextel, reportedly has more than $3 million. He raised almost two-thirds of that amount in the first quarter of this year, compared with Bayh's $400,000. Among other Democratic contenders, Sen. Joseph R. Biden of Deleware reports $2.7 million on hand.

Sen. George Allen of Virginia leads the Republicans with $7.2 million, Sen. John McCain reports about $3 million and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani claims almost $300,000.

Hot On The Trail

Indiana's junior senator and former governor continues to zip around the country from one event to the next. Tomorrow Bayh headlines a $500-a-plate dinner in Tampa, Fla., hosted by Democratic consultant Bob Buckhorn. April 29 he will be keynote speaker at the North Carolina Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson celebration.

On Monday, All America PAC announced the senator will be in Indianapolis to speak at the Camp Bayh campaign training program May 12-14, a three-day seminar featuring "national and local political professionals teaching the nuts and bolts of organizing winning campaigns," according to a news release. Similar programs are scheduled for Evansville, May 19-21, and South Bend, July 7-9.

The camp is organized by Grassroots Solutions, a group of political consultants who, according to their website, help build "sustainable volunteer-based grassroots programs." For $40 to cover materials and meals, as many as 100 participants may follow one of three tracks including "Management for Political Veterans/Party Leaders," "Intro to Management for Future Paid Professionals" and "How to be a Better Candidate."

As noted by Maureen Groppe of the Indianapolis Star, the program will help place and pay for graduates in campaigns in Indiana and other states.

Red, Blue & Purple

Understanding Hoosiers may be the key to Democrat's success in the 2008 elections, according to Paul Nussbaum of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

A Democrat who understands the pragmatic sensibilities of Indiana may be able to appeal to red-state voters elsewhere, he writes. Evan Bayh, of course, happens to fit the bill.

"If the voters know you and trust you, they'll vote for you regardless of the party," Bayh told Nussbaum. "People in Indiana care about practical things...they want to know, 'How does this affect my life?'"

Will Voters Trust A Democrat With National Security?

2006-04-11T11:22:00.000-04:00

Indiana's Sen. Evan Bayh Hopes To Find Out
For Howey Political Report April 13, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Increasing pessimism about the future of Iraq has led many Democrats to think what seemed unthinkable not so long ago: Republicans may be vulnerable on the issue of national security.

Democratic prospects for mid-term elections improve as President Bush's ratings continue to tank in poll after poll. For the first time, a Pew survey last month found fewer than half believe success is probable in Iraq, and last week, three different polls found better than 60 percent said they disapprove of the president's handling of the war. A recent Fox News survey which stated three of every four surveyed agree Iraq is better off without Saddam Hussein also found that more than half of respondents do not think U.S. efforts will produce "a free, stable government" and only one in three believe the U.S. will succeed in Iraq.

National security features prominently in Sen. Evan Bayh's message as he criss crosses the country to enlist support for a possible run at the White House in 2008. He says voters must be convinced Democrats will safeguard American interests if the party is to win back either branch of government.

"[T]his is the right issue for us to address because it's going to continue to be a threshold issue for the American people and particularly the Democratic party as we move forward," Sen. Bayh said during a press conference on the topic, conducted in Washington last week with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

An 'In-Your-Face-Taunt'

"Democrats smelling blood in November's elections had an in-your-face taunt for President Bush's political sage Karl Rove yesterday," was how the New York Daily News described Bayh's press conference under the heading "Dems spike security football in RNC's face."

While GOP leaders say they are unconcerned, Fox News reported Monday that voter worries about Iraq and the president's ability to conduct the war on terror could hurt party candidates at the polls.

"That's the great danger of the Republican candidates," Larry Sabato told Fox. "If the president's popularity is low come November, there will be a substantial turnover and the Republicans will lose seats."

For now it seems Bayh has convinced his party's leaders that Democrats can win the hearts and minds of a majority of Americans, though not everyone agrees on the substance of a plan to do so. At a media event in Washington on March 29, Democrats Sen. Harry Reid, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Gen. Wesley Clark, former Secretary of State Madeline Albright and others (Bayh was absent) convened to announce a "Real Security" proposal they described as "smart and tough," a phrase Indiana's senator first inserted into speeches months ago.

Republicans countered that the opposition's plan was heavy on sound bites and light on substance, reiterating a message disseminated in large and small media markets across the country.

As he did last Friday at the Michigan Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner in Detroit, Bayh is expected to continue to highlight security whenever he is among his party's faithful. Following an appearance Tuesday at Harvard Business School's Democrats Speakers series, he is slated to keynote the North Carolina J-J fete April 29.

What Was Right At The Time

Sen. Bayh also must work to overcome opposition to his ideas inside the party. The same polls that boosted Democratic hopes also served to re-invigorate those who protested the Iraq war from the beginning, and who are now pointing fingers at office-holders who supported the invasion. In a nearly 8,000-word interview recently conducted with the Washington Post Insider, Bayh was asked if he ever had any doubts about voting to invade Iraq.

"I did what I thought was right at the time based on the facts as I understood them at the time," Bayh said. "It turned out some of those facts weren't accurate, so of course you'd make different decisions."

The Insider pressed for details about how Bayh might approach the Iraq problem.

"I do think you'll see fewer American forces in Iraq at the end of this year than we did in the beginning with the prospect of even fewer the year after that," he said. "I would envision our involvement being a lot less patrolling the streets, providing security out in the communities, more confined to the kind of things they can't do for themselves; air coverage support, logistical support, those kinds of things.

"That's what [I would] envision us transitioning to here, hopefully sooner rather than later. But it's...got to be driven by reality as we understand it, not by our hopes alone."

Bayh To New Hampshire: I'm Here For You

2006-03-30T12:27:00.000-05:00

Bayh To New Hampshire: I'm Here For You
For Howey Political Report March 23, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

For more than half a century, the political geography of New Hampshire has defined many key battles in the war of ideas that is America's presidential elections. A who's who of winners and losers have toured time and again through just about every settlement the Granite State has to offer, and many a promising political career has begun and ended in towns with names like Chittenden, Wolfeboro or Stowe.

"Live Free or Die" is the state motto, and voters, said to be welcoming and open-minded, take pride in asking the hard questions. It is the site of America's first presidential primary, preceded only by the Iowa caucuses, and candidates arrive either desperate to bolster a disappointing campaign or determined to improve success. In the final days before an election it's survival of the fittest as elbows fly among erstwhile colleagues jockeying for endorsements and publicity.

"Here is democracy at its best, for it takes more than a big bankroll or name recognition to impress us," explained the late Nackey Loeb, who published two conservative newspapers.

Commission Favors Changes

But 2008 may be different. A Democratic Party commission formed after the 2004 election favors inserting one or two contests between Iowa and New Hampshire. The commission recommended that the Democratic National Committee determine which states should be selected based on "racial and ethnic diversity; geographic diversity; and economic diversity including union density."

Reportedly, the New Hampshire representative on the panel cast the lone vote in opposition. The DNC will meet in New Orleans next month to discuss the issue, although nothing final is expected before this fall.

In 1976, Evan Bayh interrupted his sophomore year at Indiana University to campaign in New Hampshire for six weeks during his father's race for the White House, and he recalled those days in a speech Sunday at a political fundraiser for State Rep. Betsi DeVries of Manchester, N.H.

"I traveled all over New Hampshire," the Hoosier senator said, according to a transcript provided by spokeswoman Meghan Keck. It was in the state's "living rooms, and coffee shops, in union halls and small businesses, " he said, where he "fell in love with the political process."

Sen. Bayh reminded listeners of a commitment he made during a previous visit with Gov. John Lynch.

"My strong impression is that the people of New Hampshire have X-Ray vision, you can spot a phony a mile off," Bayh said, and he promised "to do everything I can" to "retain your position."

Judging by media accounts, state democrats took a shine to the offer. Yesterday, Gov. Lynch offered a speech advocating the state's cause and made special mention of Bayh's support.

"Here in New Hampshire, I think voters will be watching carefully to see which candidates stand with New Hampshire to protect its traditional role," he said, according to remarks published in the Manchester Union Leader. "That's why I was so pleased to read Sen. Evan Bayh's comments earlier this week. It is clear he is a true friend to the New Hampshire primary."

In a separate article, the newspaper noted that Bayh's remarks separate him from potential Democratic Presidential candidates Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico and U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who have said they are fine with adding a caucus between Iowa and New Hampshire's contest.

A Full Plate

Sen. Bayh visited New Hampshire intending to accomplish more than raising money for local candidates and winning friends at the four publicized events he attended. He also hoped to convince voters he possesses the style and substance that can lead democrats to victory in the 2008 elections. Several newspapers posted favorable reports online.

He told a group of young democrats "The destiny of your generation is at stake," the Foster's Daily Democrat reported (free subscription required). The Portsmouth Herald quoted a former mayor of Port City: "It’s obvious he’s very experienced as a speaker," Robert Shaines said. "He’s very charismatic." An 800-word Associated Press article published in the Boston Globe included details on the substance of Bayh's speeches and noted he reiterated a position reported by HPR in December 2004: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should either resign or be fired.

Monday, the senator is slated to appear in Washington at the Legislative Conference of the Building and Construction Trades Dept. of the AFL-CIO. On April 8, he heads to Detroit for the Michigan Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.

As Sen. Bayh joins the war of ideas in the emerging political landscape, he faces several difficult obstacles, not the least of which is New York's Sen. Hillary Clinton, who in the role of front-runner has already laid claim to vital monetary resources. The 2008 Democratic field numbers at least 10 contenders and so Bayh must seek to differentiate and elaborate his message to establish a singular persona of leadership, reassure Democratic voters conflicted by the war with Iraq, and persuade disaffected Republican voters on issues of security and economy.

Now, more than two years before the election, he has chosen New Hampshire as one his battlegrounds. Hoosiers wondering how Bayh will fare in the months ahead might have enjoyed hearing the following conversation during a meet and greet event at a private residence on Sunday, as reported in the March 27 Portsmouth Herald:

"We’re part of a filtering system to weed out bad candidates," said Peter Somssich of the Portsmouth Democrats.

"I hope I don’t get weeded," Bayh responded. "Pruned a little, but not weeded."

Bayh: On To New Hampshire & Into The Fray

2006-03-23T11:16:00.000-05:00

Bayh: On To New Hampshire & Into The Fray
For Howey Political Report March 23, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Democrats hoping to tarnish President Bush have once again managed instead to focus more attention on their own party's shortcomings.

The call by Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.) on March 13 to censure the president for secretly ordering warrantless wiretaps further divides the Democratic Party by spotlighting disagreement between moderates and those eager to bring the current administration to an ignoble end.

As Indiana democrat Sen. Evan Bayh and others have pointed out it's not even clear Bush broke any law. Still, the resolution's loudest supporters include some of the most popular bloggers on the net, and they have unambiguously labeled all opposed or silent on the issue as cowardly, enabling DINOs (Democrats In Name Only). Only two of 48 democrat senators have signed as co-sponsors to S. Res. 398, Barbara Boxer of California and Thomas Harkin of Iowa.

Republicans are doubly pleased. Not only did the resolution create intraparty flak for potential Democratic presidential contenders like Bayh and Hillary Clinton, but it also provided raw material the GOP used to motivate Republican voters just as polls began to indicate even the faithful were becoming dissatisfied with party leadership.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal survey conducted before the resolution was introduced found Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to express high interest in the November midterms.

"Nobody knows what will transpire between now and November and how much intensity each party's voters will have," explained Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, "but as of now, Democrats have a pronounced intensity advantage and enough of one to probably outweigh the GOP organizational edge."

Observers from both parties said the Republicans probably will not find much leverage with the issue, although that hasn't stopped them from trying. Conservative pundits and GOP political operatives are happy to dwell on the fact that democrats have proposed to "give aid and comfort to the enemy" by censuring a wartime president. Yesterday's Investors Business Daily included an editorial entitled "If Democrats Win The House..." which stated, "Under a Democratic House, impeachment would be the judiciary panel's first order of business."

The Republicans "have sent an editorial on the censure attempt to 15 million contributors," according to resolution-supporter James Zogby of the Arab American Institute. "By warning the party faithful of what Democrats may do if they gain control of either Houses of Congress in November, Republicans hope to spur 2006 election fundraising."

On To New Hampshire

Bayh's opposition to the censure resolution, the flagging luster of the GOP brand, and prospects for Democratic victory in midterm elections are sure to be on the minds of those who will meet with the senator when he travels to New Hampshire Sunday and Monday. Such trips afford Bayh the chance to meet as many Democrats as possible in a state that prefers its politics up close and personal. One politically active New Hampshire native eager to learn more about Sen. Bayh recently explained to HPR, "We don't like to vote for someone unless we've had the opportunity to shake their hand."

Judging from his Sunday schedule, Indiana's junior senator is well acquainted with the concept. "Come listen to Senator Evan Bayh [speak about] the issues that are facing our country and about the power that young democrats have to make a difference by voting, working in the community, and running for office," reads the invite to a 10:15 a.m. brunch in Portsmouth with the New Hampshire Young Democrats.

Then, at 2 p.m. Bayh is slated to appear about 40 miles away in Manchester during a fete on behalf of Alderwoman Betsi Devries, and finally it's another 40-minute drive north to the Franklin Democratic Committee Spaghetti Dinner, a fundraiser for Jim Ryan and Peter Burling (tickets are $20 per person at the door).

Sen. Bayh generated publicity in Iowa last month when he pledged support to lawmakers there. "If we're going to have a strong national Democratic Party it's got to start at the grassroots level, in Statehouses, in the city halls, in the county courthouses," the senator told Mike Glover of the Associated Press. Bayh spokeswoman Meghan Keck explained to HPR in an email that the senator's support in both states "would include helping them raise money and campaigning with them or anything else they would find helpful."

As senator and possible presidential contender, Bayh lends a heightened level of interest to otherwise local venues. Appearances such as these may be good for the party but also are in keeping with an effort to establish roots that could one day blossom into a full-fledged primary campaign. Success this weekend depends on first impressions, which bodes well for a senator known for his ability to work a room and connect one-one-one with voters in individual encounters. How the people will react to Bayh's take on the controversial and often divisive issues in today's politics remains to be seen.

Evan Bayh: One Brick At A Time

2006-03-16T07:27:00.000-05:00

Evan Bayh: One Brick At A Time

For Howey Political Report March 16, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

"One brick at a time" is how blogger and enthusiastic "Bayh Partisan" Bill Earl described Evan Bayh's progress this week on the road to the White House.

"He's not making a lot of noise," Earl wrote in a column to motivate supporters. "But he is doing all the right things."

In fact, the Hoosier senator was preaching to the choir on Monday night when he urged Georgia Democrats to reach out "to independents and reasonable Republicans." Much as he has throughout the past several weeks, Bayh touted his success at the polls in red-state Indiana during the 2004 election.

"On the same day that Bush was carrying Indiana by 21 percent, I was privileged to be re-elected by 24 percent," he told the crowd of about 1,250 who attended the state's Jefferson-Jackson dinner. "Forty-five percent of the people in our state split their ticket, and we didn’t do that by selling out and becoming Republicans, we did that by reaching out and convincing them that we had what it took to lead the state of Indiana forward to better times, and we can do that in Georgia, too, we can do that for this country, too."

Several newspapers picked up on the story. "Republicans aren't invincible, Bayh says," was the headline in the Indianapolis Star. The senator believes "the party needs to focus on national security and family values if they want to beat Republicans in November," read an Associated Press article distributed nationally. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted "the $200-a-plate event raised more than $700,000."

The success in Atlanta came amid word that Bayh has been invited to keynote the Michigan J-J fete in Detroit April 8, and follows on the heels of a well-received speech at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Washington.

Taking Care Of Business

A bevy of Sen. Bayh's legislative proposals also garnered attention from various quarters.

• LIHEAP (March 7) - The Senate passed legislation co-sponsored by Bayh to provide $1 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program.

• Media Violence & Children (March 9) - A committee approved bipartisan legislation he co-sponsored to fund research into the impact of television, video games and other media on children’s development.

• Earmarks Letter (March 9) - Several news outlets reported on a bipartisan letter signed by Bayh and others urging President Bush to reduce earmarks.

• START Act (March 13) - Sen. Bayh introduced legislation that he said "would significantly reduce an estimated $17 billion in capital gains tax that currently goes unpaid each year." (Financial Times).

• Funeral Protests (March 15) - Bayh announced plans to introduce legislation to protect military families from protesters who picket and disrupt the funerals of fallen American soldiers.

Not bad for a week's work, but disappointing in terms of immediate media gratification. Any potency in Bayh's message to Georgia Democrats was diluted when the media responded to Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-Wisc.) resolution Monday to censure President Bush for secretly ordering warrantless wiretaps on suspected terrorists, including some Americans.

Few newspapers noted Bayh doesn't favor the resolution. According to the Journal-Constitution, Bayh explained, "We do need to do things a little differently to get all the al-Qaida communications they need to get." The Star reported that "Bayh said it's not clear whether the law requiring court approval before surveillance was broken, and he instead favors revisiting and possibly updating the law."

It's Hard Out Here For A Pip

The cover story in Sunday's New York Times Magazine was a 9,000 word article exploring the presidential ambitions of Virginia Democrat Mark Warner. Reporter Matt Bai described Warner as "the popular centrist governor of a Southern state — just like the last two Democrats to actually win the White House, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton."

Bai said Warner is a popular choice with the anti-Hillary crowd. "The Democratic field now emerging...is looking a lot like Gladys Knight and the Pips — and you can guess who gets to be Gladys," Bai wrote. "The party's insiders, expecting Clinton to be a virtually unstoppable force, seem to be falling in line behind her, which means there will be only so much additional money and organization left over for those who would challenge her."

Several observers have predicted Bayh and Warner stand the best chance of averting a Clinton coronation.

"A Warner-Bayh or Bayh-Warner ticket could be well nigh unbeatable," Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, wrote in January, but, he added, "Republicans need not worry: The Virginia-Indiana pairing makes so much political sense that the Democrats will never actually do it."

Evan Bayh's Spring(Or, The Sense God Gave Geese)

2006-03-09T09:01:00.000-05:00

Evan Bayh's Spring (Or, The Sense God Gave Geese)

for Howey Political Report March 9, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Washington's famed Cherry Blossom Festival is more than two weeks away, but, after the successes of the past several days, one might forgive Sen. Evan Bayh and staff if they feel like celebrating spring early.

Indiana's former governor addressed one of the most eminent venues in modern politics, earned widespread press coverage for proposals on energy and the Dubai ports deal, and, just for sauce, received an endorsement from Rolling Stone magazine.

American Israeli PAC

On Monday night the junior senator was well-received as a featured speaker at the national conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Among the 5,000 in attendance were the most familiar names in national politics, including more than half the Senate and 125 representatives.

It may have been a dreary winter night outside, but nary a chill penetrated the tight security inside the Convention Center as the crowd warmed to dinner and drinks within an expansive hall illuminated by wall-sized TV screens and 30-foot renderings of Israeli and American flags. A quiet overtook the room when the first speaker was introduced, the Honorable Susan Collins, Republican senator from Maine, who elicited brief episodes of applause during an over-lengthy address, but the excitement of the evening had begun to wane by the time Sen. Evan Bayh took the stage. "I look around the room this evening and I know I am with a roomful of friends," he said in that same voice familiar to most Hoosiers. About seven minutes in he earned a 20-second ovation with this statement:

"Until Hamas recognizes the right of Israel to exist, until it renounces the use of terror not only in word but in deed, until it recognizes the agreements that have already been struck on behalf of the Palestinian people, it should receive not one penny, not one penny, from the United States of America."

Another seven minutes or so later he addressed Iran's nuclear ambitions with a promise of "not on our watch," which was followed by another 20 seconds of applause. Bayh then broached the subject of his energy bill, asserting that "the challenge of our generation" is to ensure the security and future of the U.S. by achieving energy independence.

The message struck a chord for many in the audience. Attorney Robert S. Persky of Jersey City admitted he was unfamiliar with Bayh prior to the evening but said he was impressed and asked how to contact the senator's campaign. Fifteen-year-old Barry Rosekind of California and his fellow students from Kehillan Jewish High School appreciated Bayh's "energy and charisma." North Chicago resident Ethel Fenig, acquainted with his record as Indiana's governor, said she admired Bayh's direct and forthright message.

Bayh has yet to be confused for a fiery orator at a time when the Democratic Party is in need of an old-fashioned revival. While Iowa pundit David Yepsen wrote in an otherwise laudatory column that Bayh is "a tad stiff and has a distinct charisma deficit" (Des Moines Register), HPR publisher Brian Howey has developed an appreciation for the senator's ability to work a room. Favorable reaction to the AIPAC event bodes well for the Bayh camp, but plenty of work lies ahead. Next Monday night he takes the show to College Park, Ga., to keynote the state Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.

A Fractured GOP?

Other recent developments lend further momentum to Bayh's efforts to establish a presidential-grade political persona. There is growing unease among Republicans with President Bush, who is polling abysmally. As the March 3rd issue of the conservative Patriot Post newsletter stated, "Republicans have so demoralized their conservative base that even the most staunchly ideological conservatives are suggesting that a Democrat-controlled House may be necessary to remind Republicans why, precisely, we voted them into office."

America woke up yesterday morning to learn that top GOP lawmakers are planning to block a Dubai company from taking over operations of several U.S. ports, setting up a showdown with the White House (VOA). Sen. Bayh has criticized the process that approved the port sale (see HPR, Feb. 23), and several news stories cited his legislative proposal to give the Director of National Intelligence more power to nix such deals. Later yesterday, the Drudge Report linked to a story wherein participants at a discussion hosted by the Libertarian Cato Institute compared Bush with Nixon and labeled the president inept, vindictive and socialist (Washington Post).

Observers are turning their attention to the Republican Leadership Conference, which begins tomorrow in Memphis, where it may be seen just how far GOP frontrunners like John McCain or Bill Frist are willing to distance themselves from the president's policies.

Like A Rolling Stone

Tim Dickinson of Rolling Stone magazine's National Affairs Daily wrote this on the Democrats and Iran: "If the Democrats had the sense God gave geese - and I have my doubts - they would lock the entire congressional caucus, as well as every prospective 2008 presidential candidate, in a room and not come out until they'd developed an aggressive, coherent, unified approach to dealing with Iran - preferably along the lines outlined...by Indiana Senator Evan Bayh."

Bayh Plan Seen As Sensible Step

2006-03-02T09:10:00.000-05:00

Bayh Plan Seen As Sensible Step
To Reduce Dependence On Foreign Oil

for Howey Political Report March 2, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Over the years, Republican Richard Lugar has wielded significant influence over development of the nation's energy policy, but these days it's a plan proposed by Democrat Evan Bayh that is seen by many in Congress and industry as a sensible step in the effort to reduce the nation's dependence on foreign oil.

The list of senators who have signed on as co-sponsors of S.2025, known as the Vehicle and Fuel Choices for American Security Act, includes the likes of Lugar, Joseph Lieberman (D-CT), Obama Barack (D-IL) and Sam Brownback (R-KS). The two most recent co-sponsors, Republicans Lincoln Chafee (RI) and Johnny Isakson (GA), bring the total number of senators onboard to 11.

Pressure is building for Washington to act on the issue before a natural or manmade crisis causes crude oil to spike to $100 a barrel or worse. Economists, CEOs and risk analysts say the danger of runaway energy prices is the top threat to national and global economic security. A lack of spare output capacity and growing worries over geopolitics are making matters worse (Wall Street Journal).

On Tuesday, both Indiana senators took part in a closed-door discussion, attended by military and business leaders and a bipartisan coalition of senators, that was organized by Securing America's Future Energy, an organization committed to reducing dependence on oil. Afterward, Bayh's office issued a press release indicating that his energy plan was among items discussed.

According to Bayh's office, the legislation introduced in November would reduce the amount of oil Americans use by 2.5 million barrels per day in 10 years - the same amount the country currently purchases from the Middle East. Ultimately, Bayh's plan would reduce American oil consumption by 7 million barrels a day. The proposal would:

• Push for the development and mass marketing of hybrid technologies, including hybrids that give drivers the option to plug them in at night;

• Encourage the construction of more alternative fuel pumps at gas stations;

• Include, for the first time, fuel-efficiency standards for semi trucks;

• Offer standards to ensure fuel efficient replacement tires are offered for cars and trucks; and,

• Provide tax credits for manufacturers to retool facilities for advanced technology and alternative fuel cars and trucks.

While the plan has received support from a wide range of interests, some say any government meddling will only make the problem worse. When President Bush's State of the Union address called for federal support of research and development, for example, Ben Lieberman of the Heritage Foundation responded, "Rather than expand government interference in energy markets and pick winners and losers from among emerging technologies, Washington should get out of the way and let market forces work." Lieberman advocates reducing or eliminating regulations impacting refineries, exploration and drilling.

Any mention of alternative fuels - particularly ethanol - often incites considerable opposition as well. "In a capital city that is full of shameless political scams, ethanol is perhaps the most egregious," wrote Kevin A. Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute, also in response to the President's speech. Hassett asserts an oft-repeated litany: ethanol is a costly and less efficient fuel that contributes to air pollution.

Recent studies indicate Hassett and like-minded critics may be wrong - new technologies are improving production efficiency and creating a better fuel. An analysis by the Argonne National Laboratory in May found that ethanol can help reduce use of fossil fuels in transportation, and concluded that some types of ethanol achieve much greater energy and greenhouse gas benefits. The Sacramento Bee reports that biomass energy firms say big-time investors are starting to take note - including Bill Gates, who put $84 million into Pacific Ethanol, a company headed by former California Secretary of State Bill Jones.

The nation's energy needs were on the minds of a dozen senators - including Bayh and Lugar - when they met with President Bush in the residence of the White House Feb. 15. Bayh said he urged the president to support his bill, which is currently before the finance committee.

"The energy plan I offered this fall provides real steps that will reduce our oil consumption by the same amount we currently purchase from the Middle East," Bayh later said in a statement. "It's supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, and during our meeting, I urged the President to support my plan. If he does, my bill could become law in a matter of weeks."

Attending Port Meetings Today

Sen. Bayh's office released a statement yesterday afternoon indicating the senator will attend a Banking Committee hearing today on the Dubai takeover of American ports. On Tuesday, Bayh introduced legislation to ensure that homeland security concerns are addressed before business deals involving foreign countries are considered (see HPR, Feb. 23).

On Monday night, the senator will be featured speaker at a gala banquet of the policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel lobby group. Then, on March 13 he will keynote the Georgia Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, the state party's main fundraising event, which typically draws 1,500 to 2,000 Democratic officials and activists, according to bayhpartisan.com.

A Storm On Ports: Bayh And The Dubai Buy

2006-02-23T14:21:00.000-05:00

A Storm On Ports: Bayh And The Dubai Buy

for Howey Political Report Feb. 23, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Sen. Evan Bayh didn't miss a heartbeat on Fox News Sunday last week when asked about a story that at the time was little more than a cloud on the horizon outside the beltway - the Bush administration's approval of a deal that would allow DP World, a company mainly owned by the United Arab Emirates, to conduct significant operations at six major U.S. seaports.

"There can't be a choice between profits and protecting the American people," he said. "We have to do, even if it costs us a couple extra bucks, what it takes to protect this country. I'll give you one little example. About 80 percent of the magnets that make our smart bombs go are now made in China. It's not smart to rely on China to produce important weapons systems for this country, just like it's not smart to outsource our port security if there's any doubt."

On Monday, Bayh's office issued a press release outlining steps he intends to propose in legislation that would "stop outsourcing our homeland security."

"The Dubai takeover is a symptom of a much larger problem," Bayh stated in the press release. "Again and again, the current system for overseeing foreign takeovers has undermined our national security interests by rubber stamping deals like this one."

While the week's events unfolded, Bayh flew off to Florida and later California for several days of fundraising.

Lawmakers (including Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist), hacks and bloggers of every political stripe began to whip up a veritable maelstrom that continues to batter the administration. So far, the president says he will not be moved. On Tuesday, while returning to the White House from Colorado, Bush conducted an unusual interview with the press pool aboard Air Force One.

The president insisted the company and deal had been thoroughly vetted, and noted that DP acquired the ports operations through the takeover of a foreign-owned company already administering the contract, UK-based P&O.

"I want those who are questioning it to step up and explain why all of a sudden a Middle Eastern company is held to a different standard than a Great British [sic] company," Bush said. "I'm trying to conduct foreign policy now by saying to people of the world, 'We'll treat you fairly.'"

"They ought to look at the facts, and understand the consequences of what they're going to do. But if they pass a law, I'll deal with it, with a veto."

Threat of veto - it would be the president's first - only fanned the flames. Bill Gertz reported in Wednesday's Washington Times that several unnamed administration security officials said the deal could potentially allow terrorists to infiltrate seaports. And Indiana's own Rep. Mike Pence - never one to shy from an opportunity to remind the president of the party's conservative roots - joined a growing chorus by urging the president to put a hold on the port contract (HPR Daily Wire, Feb. 22).

Some observers insisted the president was right. Ports of Indiana spokesman Jody Peacock explained to The Times of Northwest Indiana that the U.S. Coast Guard regulates all ports and vessels regardless of the ownership of the companies working at any individual port.

Others suggested that lawmakers behaved irresponsibly. "Everyone is playing politics, and it's very unfortunate," Judith Kipper of the Council on Foreign Relations told Newsday. "It reconfirms to Arab and other allies that the United States is not a friendly place for investments and financial transactions." In an editorial entitled "Paranoia about Dubai ports deal is needless," the Financial Times stated "The bluster about national security conceals one of the uglier faces of U.S. protectionism - the one with the slightly racist tinge."

According to Bayh spokesperson Meghan Keck, the senator's proposed legislation will directly address such concerns by requiring the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which approves such sales, "to consider any country - whatever country is involved in the business deal - to consider that country's relationship with the U.S. before it approves that sale."

The legislation would also require the Director of National Intelligence to certify there are no troubling national security implications of such sales; add the director to the Committee to bolster national security consideration; require the president to notify Congress and relevant state officials of all proposed foreign acquisitions; and, calls for increased transparency at the Committee.

As Helen Delich Bentley, a former Maryland congresswoman and a port consultant, told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, CFIUS has always operated in secrecy, and has approved many deals that she objected to.

Keck noted that "Since CFIUS was formed in 1988, they've only stopped one business purchase."

"Like the magnets that were made in Indiana, Sen. Bayh believes that there are some assets that the U.S. should never have to depend on other countries to provide."

Bayh, Democrats & Security: The Nitty Gritty, Down & Dirty

2006-02-16T09:54:00.000-05:00

Bayh, Democrats & Security: The Nitty Gritty, Down & Dirty

for Howey Political Report Feb. 16, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

USA Today reports the Democrats are assembling their own version of a "Contract with America" to unite the party by spring or summer, but nowadays it seems nothing divides the opposition quicker than a call to rally.

Reaction to Sen. Evan Bayh's "tough and smart" talk on national security Feb. 2 (see HPR Feb. 9) is a case in point. An apparent effort to shape the Democratic agenda and possibly score in the arena of public opinion as well, the Senator urged his party to challenge the Republicans on national security.

The story almost instantly went coast-to-coast, but while the cameras clicked and pundits debated, the gist of Bayh's message was seeping into the cracks and fissures that divide "the party of the common man."

The blogosphere struck back with characteristic speed and venom on Feb. 9th after the Senator posted a 500-word version of his 3,500 word speech at the web site of The Huffington Post. "The Wimpy Empty Suits Undermining Dems on National Security," wrote David Sirota, a campaign strategist and writer who appears regularly on Al Franken's radio show. Hundreds posted comments. A slew of Democrats loudly opposed anyone - including Bayh, Hillary Clinton, Joe Lieberman and others - who at any time supported the war in Iraq. Republican lite, they said. Or DINO. Or worse.

Others said America's security hinges on domestic issues, and believe tough talk simply plays into the hands of the administration. Still others were offended by what columnist Molly Ivins described as playing "the patriotic bully card." Sadly, some comments were downright full of the spittle that makes politics an unhappy place for many Americans. It's not that everyone piled on - numerous blogs and comments expressed support for the message from Indiana's junior senator - but the tone and content of many posts make it clear national security is going to be a difficult plank for the Democratic Party to nail down.

If Bayh was looking to elevate the debate - well, he certainly made it hot and interesting at least for several days, until the news broke that Vice President Dick Cheney shot a friend while hunting Feb. 11, and that story began to consume everyone's attention. If the senator was hoping to become better known among Democrats, one can easily imagine such is the case, though a recent poll of New Hampshire voters doesn't seem to signal much in the way of progress for the Bayh campaign.

Little Support In New Hampshire Democratic Poll

New Hampshire's voting elite are acquainted with a previous version of Bayh's tough talk. Speaking before 600 of the state's most influential Democrats at a fundraiser in Manchester last October, he slammed the White House on North Korea and military deployment, according to the Concord Monitor. Apparently, the crowd was not swayed - the Monitor of Feb. 12th reported that the Hoosier senator polled just one percent among persons likely to vote in that state's Democratic primary, finishing well behind Hillary Clinton (32 percent) and undecided (31), and trailing, among others, John Edwards (9) and John Kerry and Wesley Clark (7 each).

Testing The Waters In Iowa

Perhaps Bayh will make a better impression in Iowa, where he spent the first part of this week on the hustings. According to news reports, his "presidential exploratory campaign" visited Cedar Rapids for a speech and breakfast, Iowa City for a meeting with local leaders, Ottumwa for a fundraiser and Des Moines to meet with Democrats in the state legislature (Louisville Courier-Journal).

He made a bit of a splash in Des Moines when he pledged to support Iowa's Democratic state lawmakers in the fall campaign to help them regain control of the state Legislature, according to Mike Glover of the Associated Press.

"I wanted to establish a strong partnership," Bayh told Glover. "If we're going to have a strong national Democratic Party it's got to start at the grassroots level, in Statehouses, in the city halls, in the county courthouses."

Aides told the Des Moines Register that Bayh could return to Iowa as early as May.

All America PAC: Stingy Or Shrewd?

A Feb. 14th article distributed by Bloomberg provided an analysis of recent Federal Election Commission filings that indicates Bayh's leadership PAC - All America PAC - is ranked sixth in Congress. The article noted that he, like others considered to be presidential contenders, has given only a small amount (4.8 percent for Bayh) in support of other federal candidates and committees, compared with an average of 22 percent for the top 25 PACs. Bayh was more generous than Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who gave 1.8 percent.

Watchdog groups are calling for tighter regulations for all lawmakers' leadership PACs, in part because they have multiplied - more than 40 percent of the members of Congress now have them - and because some have veered from their original purpose of contributing to other candidates, according to the news account.

Bayh Talks Tough On Labor & Security

2006-02-08T21:30:00.000-05:00

Bayh Talks Tough On Labor & Security

for Howey Political Report Feb. 9, 2006
www.howeypolitics.com

Sen. Evan Bayh sent a tough, clear message this week to the 600 executives at Delphi who intend to reap $510 million in incentives while cutting benefits to hourly workers - many of them Hoosiers - calling the move "a disgrace."

"How can you possibly propose $500 million in incentives paid to executives when asking the line workers to take an 80 or 90 percent cut? It ought to be against the law," Bayh said Tuesday in an address before a United Auto Workers political action conference in Washington (Associated Press).

Bayh used gentler, kinder language in a Jan. 12 letter to Delphi CEO Steve Miller. "Circumstances, like those of your company, and decency require that the highly paid not seek to enrich themselves on the backs of middle class working families," he wrote.

It's been a week of tough talk for Indiana's junior senator, who reportedly continues to trail New York Senator Hillary Clinton by a wide margin in polls for the 2008 Democratic candidate race.

On Feb. 2nd, Bayh garnered significant national news attention by sharply criticizing President Bush on national security, citing "stunning incompetence" in Iraq.

As reported in HPR's Daily Wire of Feb. 3, Bayh said a "tough and smart" approach to Iraq would "establish benchmarks for success, a timeline for progress, accountability for results and candor about how we are doing."

Labor has been generous to Bayh's campaigns over the years, according to data gathered by the Center for Responsive Politics, a non-partisan research group that tracks money in politics.

During the 2004 campaign cycle, contributions from labor groups accounted for 13 percent - $276,000 - of the senator's total PAC receipts. Business contributed $1.7 million to constitute the campaign's single largest block of PAC funding (opensecrets.org).

In the current election cycle, labor's contributions account for less than 10 percent, while the business share has increased to better than 85 percent at $903,000. Bayh's campaign has raised a total of $10.3 million, with $9.6 million as cash on hand.

According to Project Vote Smart, Bayh votes supported the interest of the UAW 100 percent in 2003 and 2004. On the votes that the National Association of Manufacturers considered to be the most important in 2003-2004, he voted their preferred position 41 percent of the time. For the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the figure for 2004 was 65 percent and in 2003 it was 43 percent.

The senator's official website states that "Bayh believes America should advance an ambitious, market-opening trade agenda, and he has built a strong record of supporting free trade," and the Libertarian Cato Institute rates him 58 percent on trade barrier issues, compared with Clinton's 35 or Republican Sen. Richard Lugar's 95.

Last July, he joined other potential 2008 Democratic presidential candidates to vote against the Central American Free Trade Agreement, the first time he had ever opposed a free trade agreement.

"This agreement contains a major loophole giving a free pass to foreign companies that ignore international labor standards," Bayh, who earned a degree in business economics at Indiana University, told the Indianapolis Star. "Our trade policy needs more enforcement, not less."

Bayh's tough talk may be turning the heads of some who had earlier discounted him as viable Presidential timber.

Patrick Doherty, senior editor at TomPaine.com, writes that he was most impressed when Bayh veered from script during the Feb. 2 security speech while answering reporters' questions about China.

"[I]n that unscripted moment, Sen. Bayh showed that regardless of what his advisers were willing to put onto paper, the man himself may just see the bigger picture," Doherty says.

The UAW performance caught the attention of staff at ABC News' influential political blog, The Note: "For years, the rap on... Evan Bayh has been that the former DLC chair doesn't appreciate the synthesis of populist and DLC themes that Bill Clinton ran on in 1992.... But he certainly roused the United Auto Workers on Tuesday with his call for tougher trade rule enforcement on China."

Maybe, just maybe, Evan Bayh is beginning to refute the naysayers - those who believe he has yet to invent and develop a name for himself. He has a long row to hoe if he intends to break from the pack, however. The list of Democrats running for president numbers 10 so far, with some observers reporting Bayh a distant second to Clinton.

The UAW invited Clinton, who is up for re-election this year, to deliver the convention's closing address on Wednesday. News accounts indicate she found a warm reception and pleased the crowd with a harshly worded 30-minute speech that jabbed Republicans on security and trade.